{"area":{"county":"Mecklenburg County","state":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","slug":"mecklenburg-va","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":168860},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":174842},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":179986},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":187440},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":191848},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":192600},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":195067},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":198082},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":201307},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":206106},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":209100},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":210809},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":216125},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":218715},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":221365},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":225504},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":224869},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":227218},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":229658},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":231013},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":231835}],"latest":231835,"yoy":3.0978036101018813,"fiveYr":37.29420821982708,"sinceStart":331.3530309232315,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":960}],"latest":960,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":57045,"population":30516,"povertyRate":16.34068760151597,"medianHomeValue":192600,"medianGrossRent":823,"medianPropertyTax":859},"hud":{"county":"Mecklenburg County","year":"2027","perUnit":960,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Virginia","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":35217,"ratePer100k":198.2915295953078},"propertyCrime":{"total":230747,"ratePer100k":1299.2354709239428},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":20.1,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":6.545279397498693,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":231835,"monthlyRent":960,"grossRent":960,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"VA","down":46367,"loan":185468,"mortgagePI":1202.9419177431382,"monthlyTax":86.16534166666668,"taxRatePct":0.446,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.45% ($859 tax ÷ $192,600 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":108.1896666666667,"insuranceRatePct":0.56,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":48,"egi":912,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":96,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":48,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":48,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":386.3550083333334,"noi":525.6449916666666,"totalExpenses":1589.2969260764717,"cashFlow":-677.2969260764717,"annualCf":-8127.56311291766,"cocReturn":-17.528766391868484,"capRate":2.7207884486811733},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-749.2969260764717,"delta":-72,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-706.0969260764716,"delta":-29,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-704.3443427431382,"delta":-27,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-867.7141535345024,"delta":-190,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −11.4% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-759.3735413570773,"delta":-82,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-867.7141535345024,"baselineCashFlow":-677.2969260764717,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.545279397498693,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":88271.56432315009,"totalCashOutlay":193911.98944836424,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","homeValueAfter":361342.0382088671,"equityBuilt":192960.32720870027,"netCostOfBuying":47318.66223966397,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":40952.902083486115},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.064072223683057,"price":231835,"medianIncome":57045,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.446,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.45% ($859 tax ÷ $192,600 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":231835,"secondary":192600,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":960,"secondary":823,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.17,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":192600,"high":231835}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":823,"high":960}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":192600,"high":231835}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":823,"high":960}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Mecklenburg County, VA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 20.1x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Mecklenburg County, VA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 20.1x, Mecklenburg County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Mecklenburg County?","a":"The typical home value in Mecklenburg County is about $231,835 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.1% year-over-year, and up 37.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Mecklenburg County?","a":"The typical rent in Mecklenburg County is about $960/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Mecklenburg County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Mecklenburg County — roughly $40,953 ahead of renting, with about $192,960 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Mecklenburg County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Mecklenburg County's median home value is 4.1x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Mecklenburg County?","a":"Mecklenburg County's effective property tax rate is about 0.45% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.45% ($859 tax ÷ $192,600 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $231,835 median home is roughly $86/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Mecklenburg County, VA was $231,835 as of April 2026, up 3.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Mecklenburg County, VA was $960/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Mecklenburg County, VA has a price-to-rent ratio of 20.1 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=mecklenburg-va","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=mecklenburg-va"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:27:24.707Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":231835,"countyFmr":960,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}