{"area":{"county":"McLennan County","state":"TX","stateName":"Texas","slug":"mclennan-tx","metro":"Waco, TX HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":188083},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":200542},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":210290},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":221043},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":234021},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":243600},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":244910},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":244612},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":248179},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":248808},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":243010},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":240377},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":249515},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":256338},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":247109},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":255871},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":254470},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":258692},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":259976},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":263744},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":257025}],"latest":257025,"yoy":1.004047628404134,"fiveYr":36.65509376179665,"sinceStart":337.4670229605297,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1297}],"latest":1297,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":66643,"population":266067,"povertyRate":16.581612777561354,"medianHomeValue":243600,"medianGrossRent":1173,"medianPropertyTax":3471},"hud":{"county":"McLennan County","year":"2027","perUnit":1297,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Texas","period":"11-2023 to 10-2025","window":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"violentCrime":{"total":236610,"ratePer100k":373.0863066051366},"propertyCrime":{"total":1238795,"ratePer100k":1953.3301685935094},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"priceToRentRatio":16.5,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 16.5× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.445885381070404,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":257025,"monthlyRent":1297,"grossRent":1297,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"TX","down":51405,"loan":205620,"mortgagePI":1333.6474061635652,"monthlyTax":305.2171875,"taxRatePct":1.425,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.43% ($3,471 tax ÷ $243,600 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":182.05937500000002,"insuranceRatePct":0.85,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":64.85000000000001,"egi":1232.15,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":129.70000000000002,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":64.85000000000001,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":64.85000000000001,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":746.6765625000002,"noi":485.47343749999993,"totalExpenses":2080.323968663565,"cashFlow":-848.1739686635652,"annualCf":-10178.087623962783,"cocReturn":-19.79980084420345,"capRate":2.266581558214181},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-945.4489686635653,"delta":-97,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-887.0839686635653,"delta":-39,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-893.6888124135652,"delta":-46,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1059.2809537495114,"delta":-211,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1986-04-01) (home values −11.9% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1987-07-01 → 1988-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-963.7434202619299,"delta":-116,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1059.2809537495114,"baselineCashFlow":-848.1739686635652,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.445885381070404,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":119258.56138242257,"totalCashOutlay":238882.02419913557,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","homeValueAfter":397994.9103724198,"equityBuilt":211317.70775065047,"netCostOfBuying":78969.3164484851,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":40289.24493393747},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.8567441441711807,"price":257025,"medianIncome":66643,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.425,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.43% ($3,471 tax ÷ $243,600 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":257025,"secondary":243600,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.06,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1297,"secondary":1173,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.11,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.06,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":243600,"high":257025}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1173,"high":1297}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.4%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.06,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":243600,"high":257025}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1173,"high":1297}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"McLennan County, TX is a moderate market — a 16.5x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is McLennan County, TX a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. McLennan County's 16.5x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in McLennan County?","a":"The typical home value in McLennan County is about $257,025 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 1.0% year-over-year, and up 36.7% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in McLennan County?","a":"The typical rent in McLennan County is about $1,297/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in McLennan County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in McLennan County — roughly $40,289 ahead of renting, with about $211,318 in equity built."},{"q":"Is McLennan County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"McLennan County's median home value is 3.9x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in McLennan County?","a":"McLennan County's effective property tax rate is about 1.43% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.43% ($3,471 tax ÷ $243,600 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $257,025 median home is roughly $305/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in McLennan County, TX was $257,025 as of April 2026, up 1.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in McLennan County, TX was $1,297/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","McLennan County, TX has a price-to-rent ratio of 16.5 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=mclennan-tx","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=mclennan-tx"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:54:43.942Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Waco, TX HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Waco, TX HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":257025,"countyFmr":1297,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Waco, TX HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"TX","stateName":"Texas","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}