{"area":{"county":"McCulloch County","state":"TX","stateName":"Texas","slug":"mcculloch-tx","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":126165},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":132451},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":138228},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":143845},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":150475},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":150500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":150735},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":150830},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":152063},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":154298},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":154408},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":155396},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":156316},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":156611},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":157905},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":158725},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":157130},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":156750},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":157031},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":156771},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":157844}],"latest":157844,"yoy":0.45440081461210463,"fiveYr":25.109182419847027,"sinceStart":344.25555868280327,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1067}],"latest":1067,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":54043,"population":7514,"povertyRate":15.333423876137445,"medianHomeValue":150500,"medianGrossRent":806,"medianPropertyTax":1494},"hud":{"county":"McCulloch County","year":"2027","perUnit":1067,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Texas","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":200412,"ratePer100k":316.00935243374596},"propertyCrime":{"total":1038472,"ratePer100k":1637.4611512313488},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":12.3,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":4.582856871246355,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":157844,"monthlyRent":1067,"grossRent":1067,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"TX","down":31568.800000000003,"loan":126275.2,"mortgagePI":819.0185436377074,"monthlyTax":130.61590999999999,"taxRatePct":0.993,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.99% ($1,494 tax ÷ $150,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":111.80616666666668,"insuranceRatePct":0.85,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":53.35,"egi":1013.65,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":106.7,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":53.35,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":53.35,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":455.8220766666667,"noi":557.8279233333333,"totalExpenses":1274.8406203043742,"cashFlow":-261.1906203043741,"annualCf":-3134.287443652489,"cocReturn":-9.928433908328756,"capRate":4.240854945389118},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-341.21562030437394,"delta":-80,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-293.20062030437407,"delta":-32,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-289.14216197104065,"delta":-28,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-390.8354834651799,"delta":-130,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −2.6% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-282.1238982958398,"delta":-21,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-390.8354834651799,"baselineCashFlow":-261.1906203043741,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":4.582856871246355,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":98110.16576333452,"totalCashOutlay":144145.70562836362,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","homeValueAfter":215998.92337101029,"equityBuilt":101356.85987278813,"netCostOfBuying":74357.64575557549,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":23752.520007759027},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.9207112854578763,"price":157844,"medianIncome":54043,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.993,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.99% ($1,494 tax ÷ $150,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":157844,"secondary":150500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.05,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1067,"secondary":806,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.32,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":150500,"high":157844}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.32,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":806,"high":1067}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 4.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":150500,"high":157844}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.32,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":806,"high":1067}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"McCulloch County, TX leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 12.3 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is McCulloch County, TX a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — McCulloch County's price-to-rent ratio of 12.3 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in McCulloch County?","a":"The typical home value in McCulloch County is about $157,844 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 0.5% year-over-year, and up 25.1% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in McCulloch County?","a":"The typical rent in McCulloch County is about $1,067/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in McCulloch County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in McCulloch County — roughly $23,753 ahead of renting, with about $101,357 in equity built."},{"q":"Is McCulloch County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"McCulloch County's median home value is 2.9x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in McCulloch County?","a":"McCulloch County's effective property tax rate is about 0.99% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.99% ($1,494 tax ÷ $150,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $157,844 median home is roughly $131/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in McCulloch County, TX was $157,844 as of April 2026, up 0.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in McCulloch County, TX was $1,067/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","McCulloch County, TX has a price-to-rent ratio of 12.3 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=mcculloch-tx","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=mcculloch-tx"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T10:42:59.770Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":157844,"countyFmr":1067,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"TX","stateName":"Texas","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}