{"area":{"county":"McCracken County","state":"KY","stateName":"Kentucky","slug":"mccracken-ky","metro":"McCracken County, KY HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":159272},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":164773},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":171115},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":175221},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":185887},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":188100},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":187079},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":201003},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":204368},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":197528},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":194388},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":193873},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":206612},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":210859},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":212246},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":209199},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":210617},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":216983},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":219375},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":219273},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":234591}],"latest":234591,"yoy":11.382746881780673,"fiveYr":47.28954241800191,"sinceStart":272.4494332073794,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1131}],"latest":1131,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":64373,"population":67564,"povertyRate":15.164218717012998,"medianHomeValue":188100,"medianGrossRent":898,"medianPropertyTax":1410},"hud":{"county":"McCracken County","year":"2027","perUnit":1131,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Kentucky","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":17727,"ratePer100k":192.39769179207374},"propertyCrime":{"total":107926,"ratePer100k":1171.3608215914342},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":17.3,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 17.3× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":8.053536992204325,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":234591,"monthlyRent":1131,"grossRent":1131,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"KY","down":46918.200000000004,"loan":187672.8,"mortgagePI":1217.2422085762742,"monthlyTax":146.619375,"taxRatePct":0.75,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.75% ($1,410 tax ÷ $188,100 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":113.38565,"insuranceRatePct":0.58,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (KY avg 0.58%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":56.550000000000004,"egi":1074.45,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":113.10000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":56.550000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":56.550000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":486.20502500000003,"noi":588.2449750000001,"totalExpenses":1703.4472335762741,"cashFlow":-628.9972335762741,"annualCf":-7547.966802915289,"cocReturn":-16.08750293684602,"capRate":3.009041139685666},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-713.8222335762741,"delta":-85,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-662.9272335762741,"delta":-34,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-657.3436460762741,"delta":-28,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-821.6780962872836,"delta":-193,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1990-04-01) (home values −5.1% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2023-04-01 → 2024-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-672.5577897788108,"delta":-44,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-821.6780962872836,"baselineCashFlow":-628.9972335762741,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":8.053536992204325,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":103994.93671821119,"totalCashOutlay":199695.6441024315,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (KY avg 0.58%/yr)","homeValueAfter":403444.92722534126,"equityBuilt":233061.53401361685,"netCostOfBuying":13552.310088814673,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":90442.62662939652},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.6442452581051064,"price":234591,"medianIncome":64373,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.75,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.75% ($1,410 tax ÷ $188,100 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":234591,"secondary":188100,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.25,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1131,"secondary":898,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.26,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.25,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":188100,"high":234591}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.26,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":898,"high":1131}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 8.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.25,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":188100,"high":234591}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.26,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":898,"high":1131}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"McCracken County, KY is a moderate market — a 17.3x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is McCracken County, KY a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. McCracken County's 17.3x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in McCracken County?","a":"The typical home value in McCracken County is about $234,591 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 11.4% year-over-year, and up 47.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in McCracken County?","a":"The typical rent in McCracken County is about $1,131/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in McCracken County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in McCracken County — roughly $90,443 ahead of renting, with about $233,062 in equity built."},{"q":"Is McCracken County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"McCracken County's median home value is 3.6x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in McCracken County?","a":"McCracken County's effective property tax rate is about 0.75% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.75% ($1,410 tax ÷ $188,100 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $234,591 median home is roughly $147/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in McCracken County, KY was $234,591 as of April 2026, up 11.4% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in McCracken County, KY was $1,131/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","McCracken County, KY has a price-to-rent ratio of 17.3 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=mccracken-ky","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=mccracken-ky"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:08:23.327Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, McCracken County, KY HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"McCracken County, KY HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":234591,"countyFmr":1131,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"McCracken County, KY HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"KY","stateName":"Kentucky","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}