{"area":{"county":"Marshall County","state":"IN","stateName":"Indiana","slug":"marshall-in","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":176770},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":182802},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":189072},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":196251},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":202375},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":204900},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":205836},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":208506},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":213899},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":216872},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":220676},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":224414},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":227374},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":231586},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":234962},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":236188},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":238067},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":238396},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":242681},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":245753},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":246472}],"latest":246472,"yoy":3.530518719520135,"fiveYr":39.43089890818578,"sinceStart":273.86727341676146,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1088}],"latest":1088,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":71808,"population":46284,"povertyRate":11.68273444347064,"medianHomeValue":204900,"medianGrossRent":938,"medianPropertyTax":1362},"hud":{"county":"Marshall County","year":"2027","perUnit":1088,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Indiana","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":29043,"ratePer100k":208.24331779365764},"propertyCrime":{"total":123972,"ratePer100k":888.900616104236},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":18.9,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 18.9× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.874909093032611,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":246472,"monthlyRent":1088,"grossRent":1088,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"IN","down":49294.4,"loan":197177.6,"mortgagePI":1278.89016045889,"monthlyTax":136.58656666666667,"taxRatePct":0.665,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.67% ($1,362 tax ÷ $204,900 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":110.9124,"insuranceRatePct":0.54,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (IN avg 0.54%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":54.400000000000006,"egi":1033.6,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":108.80000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":54.400000000000006,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":54.400000000000006,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":465.0989666666667,"noi":568.5010333333332,"totalExpenses":1743.9891271255567,"cashFlow":-710.3891271255568,"annualCf":-8524.66952550668,"cocReturn":-17.29338327580147,"capRate":2.7678650718945756},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-791.9891271255567,"delta":-82,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-743.0291271255567,"delta":-33,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-738.1172271255568,"delta":-28,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-912.8284261357828,"delta":-202,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −4.7% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-748.7419013975579,"delta":-38,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-912.8284261357828,"baselineCashFlow":-710.3891271255568,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.874909093032611,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":100041.10623290345,"totalCashOutlay":207079.8184487623,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (IN avg 0.54%/yr)","homeValueAfter":392552.63553524576,"equityBuilt":213540.07456027172,"netCostOfBuying":42834.143888490566,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":57206.96234441288},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.4323752228163995,"price":246472,"medianIncome":71808,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.665,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.67% ($1,362 tax ÷ $204,900 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":246472,"secondary":204900,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1088,"secondary":938,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.16,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":204900,"high":246472}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.16,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":938,"high":1088}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.9%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":204900,"high":246472}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.16,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":938,"high":1088}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Marshall County, IN is a moderate market — a 18.9x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Marshall County, IN a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Marshall County's 18.9x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Marshall County?","a":"The typical home value in Marshall County is about $246,472 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.5% year-over-year, and up 39.4% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Marshall County?","a":"The typical rent in Marshall County is about $1,088/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Marshall County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Marshall County — roughly $57,207 ahead of renting, with about $213,540 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Marshall County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Marshall County's median home value is 3.4x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Marshall County?","a":"Marshall County's effective property tax rate is about 0.67% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.67% ($1,362 tax ÷ $204,900 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $246,472 median home is roughly $137/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Marshall County, IN was $246,472 as of April 2026, up 3.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Marshall County, IN was $1,088/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Marshall County, IN has a price-to-rent ratio of 18.9 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=marshall-in","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=marshall-in"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T22:17:55.125Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":246472,"countyFmr":1088,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"IN","stateName":"Indiana","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}