{"area":{"county":"Marion County","state":"TN","stateName":"Tennessee","slug":"marion-tn","metro":"Chattanooga, TN-GA MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":152420},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":162660},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":169308},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":177989},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":188847},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":195200},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":193363},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":200378},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":204048},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":208547},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":211871},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":214560},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":221442},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":221554},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":221715},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":222896},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":226587},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":227762},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":230385},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":231376},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":230930}],"latest":230930,"yoy":1.9167030765224837,"fiveYr":51.50898832174256,"sinceStart":608.1135778241138,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1340}],"latest":1340,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":61824,"population":29250,"povertyRate":16.308775806117517,"medianHomeValue":195200,"medianGrossRent":853,"medianPropertyTax":833},"hud":{"county":"Marion County","year":"2027","perUnit":1340,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Tennessee","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":67245,"ratePer100k":459.6329552830346},"propertyCrime":{"total":217854,"ratePer100k":1489.0754381772658},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":14.4,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":8.665734651614931,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":230930,"monthlyRent":1340,"grossRent":1340,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"TN","down":46186,"loan":184744,"mortgagePI":1198.2460675239843,"monthlyTax":82.17259166666666,"taxRatePct":0.427,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.43% ($833 tax ÷ $195,200 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":115.46499999999999,"insuranceRatePct":0.6,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TN avg 0.6%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":67,"egi":1273,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":134,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":67,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":67,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":465.63759166666665,"noi":807.3624083333334,"totalExpenses":1663.8836591906509,"cashFlow":-390.88365919065086,"annualCf":-4690.60391028781,"cocReturn":-10.155899862053024,"capRate":4.1953617546442645},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-491.38365919065086,"delta":-100,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-431.0836591906509,"delta":-40,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-419.7499091906509,"delta":-29,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-580.5575666545069,"delta":-190,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1980-07-01) (home values −17.8% over 6 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1981-01-01 → 1981-07-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-569.7868064642848,"delta":-179,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-580.5575666545069,"baselineCashFlow":-390.88365919065086,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":8.665734651614931,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":123212.39186773033,"totalCashOutlay":191632.45239924212,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TN avg 0.6%/yr)","homeValueAfter":413169.9226085651,"equityBuilt":245445.51291516886,"netCostOfBuying":-7627.060515926743,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":130839.45238365707},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.7352807971014492,"price":230930,"medianIncome":61824,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.427,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.43% ($833 tax ÷ $195,200 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":230930,"secondary":195200,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.18,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1340,"secondary":853,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.57,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.18,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":195200,"high":230930}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.57,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":853,"high":1340}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 8.7%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.18,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":195200,"high":230930}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.57,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":853,"high":1340}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Marion County, TN leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 14.4 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Marion County, TN a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Marion County's price-to-rent ratio of 14.4 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Marion County?","a":"The typical home value in Marion County is about $230,930 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 1.9% year-over-year, and up 51.5% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Marion County?","a":"The typical rent in Marion County is about $1,340/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Marion County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Marion County — roughly $130,839 ahead of renting, with about $245,446 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Marion County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Marion County's median home value is 3.7x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Marion County?","a":"Marion County's effective property tax rate is about 0.43% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.43% ($833 tax ÷ $195,200 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $230,930 median home is roughly $82/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Marion County, TN was $230,930 as of April 2026, up 1.9% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Marion County, TN was $1,340/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Marion County, TN has a price-to-rent ratio of 14.4 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=marion-tn","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=marion-tn"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:53:39.246Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Chattanooga, TN-GA MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Chattanooga, TN-GA MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":230930,"countyFmr":1340,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Chattanooga, TN-GA MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"TN","stateName":"Tennessee","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}