{"area":{"county":"Marion County","state":"IN","stateName":"Indiana","slug":"marion-in","metro":"Indianapolis-Carmel, IN HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":191136},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":198864},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":206224},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":214098},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":224347},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":224000},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":224042},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":227930},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":231430},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":234096},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":241151},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":239088},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":242005},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":245657},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":245581},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":251267},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":253121},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":253712},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":257996},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":258739},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":258461}],"latest":258461,"yoy":2.1096629675135605,"fiveYr":35.22361041352754,"sinceStart":272.22910305893197,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1536}],"latest":1536,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":66346,"population":975809,"povertyRate":15.345480507876596,"medianHomeValue":224000,"medianGrossRent":1153,"medianPropertyTax":2028},"hud":{"county":"Marion County","year":"2027","perUnit":1536,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Indiana","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":28362,"ratePer100k":203.3604303709575},"propertyCrime":{"total":119646,"ratePer100k":857.8824501855856},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":14,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.221906982068126,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":258461,"monthlyRent":1536,"grossRent":1536,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"IN","down":51692.200000000004,"loan":206768.8,"mortgagePI":1341.0985010969407,"monthlyTax":194.92267083333334,"taxRatePct":0.905,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.91% ($2,028 tax ÷ $224,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":116.30745,"insuranceRatePct":0.54,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (IN avg 0.54%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":76.80000000000001,"egi":1459.2,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":153.60000000000002,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":76.80000000000001,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":76.80000000000001,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":618.4301208333334,"noi":840.7698791666667,"totalExpenses":1959.528621930274,"cashFlow":-500.32862193027404,"annualCf":-6003.9434631632885,"cocReturn":-11.614795778015422,"capRate":3.9035825714517856},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-615.5286219302739,"delta":-115,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-546.4086219302742,"delta":-46,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-529.4054844302741,"delta":-29,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-712.6150628301816,"delta":-212,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −6.5% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-575.3865369881892,"delta":-75,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-712.6150628301816,"baselineCashFlow":-500.32862193027404,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.221906982068126,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":141234.50291704014,"totalCashOutlay":216110.33877230424,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (IN avg 0.54%/yr)","homeValueAfter":394360.7446777586,"equityBuilt":206640.57556259443,"netCostOfBuying":61161.96320970982,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":80072.53970733032},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.8956530913694873,"price":258461,"medianIncome":66346,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.905,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.91% ($2,028 tax ÷ $224,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":258461,"secondary":224000,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.15,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1536,"secondary":1153,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.33,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":224000,"high":258461}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.33,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1153,"high":1536}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (229d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (15d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.2%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":229,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":15,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":224000,"high":258461}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.33,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1153,"high":1536}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Marion County, IN leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 14.0 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Marion County, IN a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Marion County's price-to-rent ratio of 14.0 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Marion County?","a":"The typical home value in Marion County is about $258,461 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 2.1% year-over-year, and up 35.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Marion County?","a":"The typical rent in Marion County is about $1,536/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Marion County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Marion County — roughly $80,073 ahead of renting, with about $206,641 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Marion County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Marion County's median home value is 3.9x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Marion County?","a":"Marion County's effective property tax rate is about 0.91% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.91% ($2,028 tax ÷ $224,000 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $258,461 median home is roughly $195/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Marion County, IN was $258,461 as of April 2026, up 2.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Marion County, IN was $1,536/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Marion County, IN has a price-to-rent ratio of 14.0 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=marion-in","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=marion-in"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T12:09:12.018Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Indianapolis-Carmel, IN HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Indianapolis-Carmel, IN HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":258461,"countyFmr":1536,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Indianapolis-Carmel, IN HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"IN","stateName":"Indiana","cityPages":[{"city":"Indianapolis","state":"IN"}],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}