{"area":{"county":"Madison County","state":"NY","stateName":"New York","slug":"madison-ny","metro":"Syracuse, NY MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":153251},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":162134},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":167214},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":169878},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":179593},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":184600},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":184388},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":188644},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":197235},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":203227},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":206110},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":205118},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":219249},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":222701},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":227146},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":223752},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":236956},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":241781},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":243948},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":246423},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":251510}],"latest":251510,"yoy":6.142068569692263,"fiveYr":64.11638423240305,"sinceStart":668.9791176200813,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1493}],"latest":1493,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":75499,"population":67328,"povertyRate":10.014464253790772,"medianHomeValue":184600,"medianGrossRent":928,"medianPropertyTax":4181},"hud":{"county":"Madison County","year":"2027","perUnit":1493,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"New York","period":"09-2024 to 08-2026","window":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":140684,"ratePer100k":351.6673251700906},"propertyCrime":{"total":600711,"ratePer100k":1501.5952814126006},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":14,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":10.4170854447853,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":251510,"monthlyRent":1493,"grossRent":1493,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NY","down":50302,"loan":201208,"mortgagePI":1305.0312581429753,"monthlyTax":474.725125,"taxRatePct":2.265,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 2.27% ($4,181 tax ÷ $184,600 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":104.79583333333333,"insuranceRatePct":0.5,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NY avg 0.5%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":74.65,"egi":1418.35,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":149.3,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":74.65,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":74.65,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":878.1209583333332,"noi":540.2290416666667,"totalExpenses":2183.1522164763082,"cashFlow":-764.8022164763086,"annualCf":-9177.626597715702,"cocReturn":-18.245053074859253,"capRate":2.577531112083019},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-876.7772164763085,"delta":-112,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-809.5922164763085,"delta":-45,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-791.001174809642,"delta":-26,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-971.3794670121176,"delta":-207,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1977-10-01) (home values −6.8% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1994-01-01 → 1995-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-840.5926244518862,"delta":-76,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-971.3794670121176,"baselineCashFlow":-764.8022164763086,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":10.4170854447853,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":137280.67243173235,"totalCashOutlay":236298.34097489034,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NY avg 0.5%/yr)","homeValueAfter":503279.46769645775,"equityBuilt":320607.80839716305,"netCostOfBuying":-34007.46742227272,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":171288.13985400507},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.3313024013563095,"price":251510,"medianIncome":75499,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":2.265,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 2.27% ($4,181 tax ÷ $184,600 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":251510,"secondary":184600,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.36,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1493,"secondary":928,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.61,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.36,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":184600,"high":251510}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.61,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":928,"high":1493}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 10.4%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.36,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":184600,"high":251510}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.61,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":928,"high":1493}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Madison County, NY leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 14.0 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Madison County, NY a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Madison County's price-to-rent ratio of 14.0 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Madison County?","a":"The typical home value in Madison County is about $251,510 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 6.1% year-over-year, and up 64.1% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Madison County?","a":"The typical rent in Madison County is about $1,493/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Madison County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Madison County — roughly $171,288 ahead of renting, with about $320,608 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Madison County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Madison County's median home value is 3.3x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Madison County?","a":"Madison County's effective property tax rate is about 2.27% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 2.27% ($4,181 tax ÷ $184,600 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $251,510 median home is roughly $475/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Madison County, NY was $251,510 as of April 2026, up 6.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Madison County, NY was $1,493/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Madison County, NY has a price-to-rent ratio of 14.0 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=madison-ny","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=madison-ny"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T22:11:35.521Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Syracuse, NY MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Syracuse, NY MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":251510,"countyFmr":1493,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Syracuse, NY MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"NY","stateName":"New York","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}