{"area":{"county":"Madison County","state":"NE","stateName":"Nebraska","slug":"madison-ne","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":182953},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":189506},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":195477},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":201690},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":206901},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":208500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":211849},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":214830},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":217855},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":223099},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":221774},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":228646},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":232130},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":231229},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":237654},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":236748},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":239650},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":240992},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":243022},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":245773},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":244503}],"latest":244503,"yoy":2.025036511579387,"fiveYr":33.64252021010861,"sinceStart":337.2762228382366,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1082}],"latest":1082,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":63128,"population":35532,"povertyRate":13.091528162511542,"medianHomeValue":208500,"medianGrossRent":881,"medianPropertyTax":2854},"hud":{"county":"Madison County","year":"2027","perUnit":1082,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Nebraska","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":8346,"ratePer100k":206.7882850695191},"propertyCrime":{"total":52809,"ratePer100k":1308.445069043402},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":18.8,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 18.8× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":5.9723048210370555,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":244503,"monthlyRent":1082,"grossRent":1082,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NE","down":48900.600000000006,"loan":195602.4,"mortgagePI":1268.6734432417475,"monthlyTax":278.93717250000003,"taxRatePct":1.369,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.37% ($2,854 tax ÷ $208,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":154.8519,"insuranceRatePct":0.76,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NE avg 0.76%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":54.1,"egi":1027.9,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":108.2,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":54.1,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":54.1,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":650.1890725000001,"noi":377.7109275,"totalExpenses":1918.8625157417475,"cashFlow":-890.9625157417474,"annualCf":-10691.550188900968,"cocReturn":-21.863842547741676,"capRate":1.8537732175065338},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-972.1125157417476,"delta":-81,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-923.4225157417475,"delta":-32,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-929.6754907417475,"delta":-39,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1091.7845804221058,"delta":-201,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −3.5% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-04-01 → 2008-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-919.1843419360648,"delta":-28,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1091.7845804221058,"baselineCashFlow":-890.9625157417474,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":5.9723048210370555,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":99489.40895588376,"totalCashOutlay":224573.9168322146,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NE avg 0.76%/yr)","homeValueAfter":366970.2454740296,"equityBuilt":189387.76877864814,"netCostOfBuying":84086.74805356647,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":15402.660902317293},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.873130781903434,"price":244503,"medianIncome":63128,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.369,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.37% ($2,854 tax ÷ $208,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":244503,"secondary":208500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.17,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1082,"secondary":881,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.23,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":208500,"high":244503}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":881,"high":1082}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":208500,"high":244503}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":881,"high":1082}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Madison County, NE is a moderate market — a 18.8x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Madison County, NE a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Madison County's 18.8x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Madison County?","a":"The typical home value in Madison County is about $244,503 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 2.0% year-over-year, and up 33.6% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Madison County?","a":"The typical rent in Madison County is about $1,082/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Madison County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Madison County — roughly $15,403 ahead of renting, with about $189,388 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Madison County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Madison County's median home value is 3.9x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Madison County?","a":"Madison County's effective property tax rate is about 1.37% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.37% ($2,854 tax ÷ $208,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $244,503 median home is roughly $279/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Madison County, NE was $244,503 as of April 2026, up 2.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Madison County, NE was $1,082/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Madison County, NE has a price-to-rent ratio of 18.8 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=madison-ne","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=madison-ne"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:12:11.190Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":244503,"countyFmr":1082,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"NE","stateName":"Nebraska","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}