{"area":{"county":"Madison County","state":"IA","stateName":"Iowa","slug":"madison-ia","metro":"Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":216477},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":221480},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":227897},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":234345},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":242931},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":245100},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":243966},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":248955},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":252522},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":257496},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":259521},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":262303},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":265379},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":268576},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":271425},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":268402},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":274925},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":272809},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":274985},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":276527},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":275076}],"latest":275076,"yoy":0.0549240702009639,"fiveYr":27.06938843387519,"sinceStart":263.9389809877882,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1360}],"latest":1360,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":90855,"population":16926,"povertyRate":7.036196392306773,"medianHomeValue":245100,"medianGrossRent":1036,"medianPropertyTax":3624},"hud":{"county":"Madison County","year":"2027","perUnit":1360,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Iowa","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":13982,"ratePer100k":215.67255532027266},"propertyCrime":{"total":68730,"ratePer100k":1060.161259273519},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":16.9,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 16.9× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":4.908586808977811,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":275076,"monthlyRent":1360,"grossRent":1360,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"IA","down":55015.200000000004,"loan":220060.8,"mortgagePI":1427.3101600927878,"monthlyTax":339.03117000000003,"taxRatePct":1.479,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.48% ($3,624 tax ÷ $245,100 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":132.9534,"insuranceRatePct":0.58,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (IA avg 0.58%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":68,"egi":1292,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":136,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":68,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":68,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":743.9845700000001,"noi":548.0154299999999,"totalExpenses":2171.294730092788,"cashFlow":-879.2947300927879,"annualCf":-10551.536761113453,"cocReturn":-19.179311828573653,"capRate":2.3906793613401383},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-981.294730092788,"delta":-102,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-920.0947300927878,"delta":-41,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-912.5330800927878,"delta":-33,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1105.2278690072972,"delta":-226,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −6.0% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-940.4109203485453,"delta":-61,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1105.2278690072972,"baselineCashFlow":-879.2947300927879,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":4.908586808977811,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":125051.38279112929,"totalCashOutlay":243699.54630157113,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (IA avg 0.58%/yr)","homeValueAfter":384706.88444408134,"equityBuilt":184919.244376439,"netCostOfBuying":113795.50192513215,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":11255.88086599714},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.027637444279346,"price":275076,"medianIncome":90855,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.479,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.48% ($3,624 tax ÷ $245,100 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":275076,"secondary":245100,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.12,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1360,"secondary":1036,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.31,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":245100,"high":275076}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.31,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1036,"high":1360}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 4.9%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":245100,"high":275076}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.31,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1036,"high":1360}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Madison County, IA is a moderate market — a 16.9x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Madison County, IA a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Madison County's 16.9x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Madison County?","a":"The typical home value in Madison County is about $275,076 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 0.1% year-over-year, and up 27.1% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Madison County?","a":"The typical rent in Madison County is about $1,360/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Madison County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Madison County — roughly $11,256 ahead of renting, with about $184,919 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Madison County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Madison County's median home value is 3.0x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Madison County?","a":"Madison County's effective property tax rate is about 1.48% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.48% ($3,624 tax ÷ $245,100 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $275,076 median home is roughly $339/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Madison County, IA was $275,076 as of April 2026, up 0.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Madison County, IA was $1,360/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Madison County, IA has a price-to-rent ratio of 16.9 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=madison-ia","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=madison-ia"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T11:31:12.306Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":275076,"countyFmr":1360,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"IA","stateName":"Iowa","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}