{"area":{"county":"Madison County","state":"GA","stateName":"Georgia","slug":"madison-ga","metro":"Athens-Clarke County, GA MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":170702},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":178325},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":188559},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":192612},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":212820},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":219700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":221204},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":220795},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":227793},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":231054},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":240892},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":235929},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":243354},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":249919},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":252437},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":255896},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":261675},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":255543},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":259293},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":261564},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":264323}],"latest":264323,"yoy":1.0119422948313748,"fiveYr":54.844700120678134,"sinceStart":474.8151530967293,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1285}],"latest":1285,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":61963,"population":31528,"povertyRate":17.241157762857785,"medianHomeValue":219700,"medianGrossRent":972,"medianPropertyTax":1677},"hud":{"county":"Madison County","year":"2027","perUnit":1285,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Georgia","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":55184,"ratePer100k":244.11762520052645},"propertyCrime":{"total":251033,"ratePer100k":1110.4954299609262},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":17.1,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 17.1× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":9.140130529402079,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":264323,"monthlyRent":1285,"grossRent":1285,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"GA","down":52864.600000000006,"loan":211458.4,"mortgagePI":1371.5151574336035,"monthlyTax":168.0653741666667,"taxRatePct":0.763,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.76% ($1,677 tax ÷ $219,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":145.37765,"insuranceRatePct":0.66,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (GA avg 0.66%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":64.25,"egi":1220.75,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":128.5,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":64.25,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":64.25,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":570.4430241666666,"noi":650.3069758333334,"totalExpenses":1941.95818160027,"cashFlow":-721.2081816002701,"annualCf":-8654.498179203241,"cocReturn":-16.37106528603875,"capRate":2.952328669847119},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-817.5831816002701,"delta":-96,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-759.7581816002701,"delta":-39,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-757.5525941002702,"delta":-36,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-938.3093648270872,"delta":-217,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1985-04-01) (home values −8.4% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-801.8389338692206,"delta":-81,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-938.3093648270872,"baselineCashFlow":-721.2081816002701,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":9.140130529402079,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":118155.1668283832,"totalCashOutlay":229863.59555652723,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (GA avg 0.66%/yr)","homeValueAfter":487557.9437754961,"equityBuilt":295580.2053119462,"netCostOfBuying":-12852.009755418985,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":131007.17658380218},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.265819924793829,"price":264323,"medianIncome":61963,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.763,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.76% ($1,677 tax ÷ $219,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":264323,"secondary":219700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1285,"secondary":972,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.32,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":219700,"high":264323}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.32,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":972,"high":1285}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 9.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":219700,"high":264323}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.32,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":972,"high":1285}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Madison County, GA is a moderate market — a 17.1x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Madison County, GA a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Madison County's 17.1x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Madison County?","a":"The typical home value in Madison County is about $264,323 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 1.0% year-over-year, and up 54.8% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Madison County?","a":"The typical rent in Madison County is about $1,285/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Madison County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Madison County — roughly $131,007 ahead of renting, with about $295,580 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Madison County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Madison County's median home value is 4.3x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Madison County?","a":"Madison County's effective property tax rate is about 0.76% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.76% ($1,677 tax ÷ $219,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $264,323 median home is roughly $168/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Madison County, GA was $264,323 as of April 2026, up 1.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Madison County, GA was $1,285/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Madison County, GA has a price-to-rent ratio of 17.1 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=madison-ga","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=madison-ga"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T23:40:08.903Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Athens-Clarke County, GA MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Athens-Clarke County, GA MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":264323,"countyFmr":1285,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Athens-Clarke County, GA MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"GA","stateName":"Georgia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}