{"area":{"county":"Madison County","state":"AL","stateName":"Alabama","slug":"madison-al","metro":"Huntsville, AL MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":232775},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":249011},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":264723},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":272187},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":288846},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":299200},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":293449},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":295121},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":304558},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":307288},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":300892},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":311297},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":312153},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":321620},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":318730},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":318367},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":322094},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":321943},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":328056},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":327301},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":332780}],"latest":332780,"yoy":3.3176650294634484,"fiveYr":42.96208785307701,"sinceStart":336.5759265332896,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1341}],"latest":1341,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":86499,"population":405718,"povertyRate":10.127080550377636,"medianHomeValue":299200,"medianGrossRent":1209,"medianPropertyTax":1185},"hud":{"county":"Madison County","year":"2027","perUnit":1341,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Alabama","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":33406,"ratePer100k":321.6390710113135},"propertyCrime":{"total":140403,"ratePer100k":1351.825734514801},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":20.7,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":7.4109175961049045,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":332780,"monthlyRent":1341,"grossRent":1341,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"AL","down":66556,"loan":266224,"mortgagePI":1726.7237966077664,"monthlyTax":109.8174,"taxRatePct":0.396,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.40% ($1,185 tax ÷ $299,200 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":199.668,"insuranceRatePct":0.72,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AL avg 0.72%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":67.05,"egi":1273.95,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":134.1,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":67.05,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":67.05,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":577.6854000000001,"noi":696.2646,"totalExpenses":2304.4091966077667,"cashFlow":-1030.4591966077664,"annualCf":-12365.510359293197,"cocReturn":-18.57910685632129,"capRate":2.510720355790612},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1131.0341966077663,"delta":-101,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1070.6891966077665,"delta":-40,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1080.3761966077664,"delta":-50,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1303.7874039685335,"delta":-273,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1984-07-01) (home values −3.6% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1993-10-01 → 1994-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1066.9226312535418,"delta":-36,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1303.7874039685335,"baselineCashFlow":-1030.4591966077664,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.4109175961049045,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":123304.34141390027,"totalCashOutlay":273717.74992967467,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AL avg 0.72%/yr)","homeValueAfter":548903.7583524183,"equityBuilt":307205.7154053415,"netCostOfBuying":33068.03452433314,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":90236.30688956713},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.847212106498341,"price":332780,"medianIncome":86499,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.396,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.40% ($1,185 tax ÷ $299,200 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":332780,"secondary":299200,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.11,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1341,"secondary":1209,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.11,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":299200,"high":332780}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1209,"high":1341}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.4%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":299200,"high":332780}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1209,"high":1341}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Madison County, AL is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 20.7x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Madison County, AL a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 20.7x, Madison County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Madison County?","a":"The typical home value in Madison County is about $332,780 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 3.3% year-over-year, and up 43.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Madison County?","a":"The typical rent in Madison County is about $1,341/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Madison County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Madison County — roughly $90,236 ahead of renting, with about $307,206 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Madison County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Madison County's median home value is 3.8x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Madison County?","a":"Madison County's effective property tax rate is about 0.40% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.40% ($1,185 tax ÷ $299,200 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $332,780 median home is roughly $110/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Madison County, AL was $332,780 as of April 2026, up 3.3% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Madison County, AL was $1,341/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Madison County, AL has a price-to-rent ratio of 20.7 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=madison-al","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=madison-al"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:12:49.007Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Huntsville, AL MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Huntsville, AL MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":332780,"countyFmr":1341,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Huntsville, AL MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"AL","stateName":"Alabama","cityPages":[{"city":"Huntsville","state":"AL"}],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}