{"area":{"county":"Macon County","state":"TN","stateName":"Tennessee","slug":"macon-tn","metro":"Macon County, TN HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":181135},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":192109},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":205086},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":214344},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":229764},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":225700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":223508},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":224830},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":225626},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":227736},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":232080},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":230803},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":235902},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":241248},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":242052},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":243128},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":243194},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":240615},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":241190},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":244667},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":242664}],"latest":242664,"yoy":-0.21793300821566325,"fiveYr":33.96858696552295,"sinceStart":491.07051516258673,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":995}],"latest":995,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":59177,"population":26240,"povertyRate":17.161410018552875,"medianHomeValue":225700,"medianGrossRent":846,"medianPropertyTax":874},"hud":{"county":"Macon County","year":"2027","perUnit":995,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Tennessee","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":67245,"ratePer100k":459.6329552830346},"propertyCrime":{"total":217854,"ratePer100k":1489.0754381772658},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":20.3,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":6.023972657932286,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":242664,"monthlyRent":995,"grossRent":995,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"TN","down":48532.8,"loan":194131.2,"mortgagePI":1259.1312680450358,"monthlyTax":78.25914,"taxRatePct":0.387,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.39% ($874 tax ÷ $225,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":121.332,"insuranceRatePct":0.6,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TN avg 0.6%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":49.75,"egi":945.25,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":99.5,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":49.75,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":49.75,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":398.59114,"noi":546.65886,"totalExpenses":1657.7224080450358,"cashFlow":-712.4724080450358,"annualCf":-8549.668896540428,"cocReturn":-17.616269608471853,"capRate":2.7032878053604983},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-787.0974080450358,"delta":-75,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-742.3224080450358,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-742.8054080450357,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-911.7840136433088,"delta":-199,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −5.8% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2009-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-755.7068123759557,"delta":-43,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-911.7840136433088,"baselineCashFlow":-712.4724080450358,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.023972657932286,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":91489.79843909829,"totalCashOutlay":197717.14656951922,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TN avg 0.6%/yr)","homeValueAfter":365454.96191755927,"equityBuilt":189208.15052952687,"netCostOfBuying":57041.79603999233,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":34448.00239910596},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.100647210909644,"price":242664,"medianIncome":59177,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.387,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.39% ($874 tax ÷ $225,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":242664,"secondary":225700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.08,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":995,"secondary":846,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.18,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.08,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":225700,"high":242664}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.18,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":846,"high":995}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.08,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":225700,"high":242664}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.18,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":846,"high":995}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Macon County, TN is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 20.3x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Macon County, TN a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 20.3x, Macon County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Macon County?","a":"The typical home value in Macon County is about $242,664 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), down 0.2% year-over-year, and up 34.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Macon County?","a":"The typical rent in Macon County is about $995/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Macon County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Macon County — roughly $34,448 ahead of renting, with about $189,208 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Macon County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Macon County's median home value is 4.1x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Macon County?","a":"Macon County's effective property tax rate is about 0.39% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.39% ($874 tax ÷ $225,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $242,664 median home is roughly $78/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Macon County, TN was $242,664 as of April 2026, down 0.2% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Macon County, TN was $995/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Macon County, TN has a price-to-rent ratio of 20.3 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=macon-tn","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=macon-tn"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T23:21:08.246Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Macon County, TN HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Macon County, TN HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":242664,"countyFmr":995,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Macon County, TN HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"TN","stateName":"Tennessee","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}