{"area":{"county":"Macon County","state":"AL","stateName":"Alabama","slug":"macon-al","metro":"Macon County, AL HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":86381},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":89683},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":92801},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":96207},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":102708},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":102000},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":105992},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":103465},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":110295},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":113590},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":110826},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":110634},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":112992},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":115583},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":119398},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":118922},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":124128},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":119136},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":123807},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":124756},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":125685}],"latest":125685,"yoy":1.2543503480278422,"fiveYr":45.50074669198088,"sinceStart":320.98475967174676,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":981}],"latest":981,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":43707,"population":18691,"povertyRate":24.31844997826492,"medianHomeValue":102000,"medianGrossRent":734,"medianPropertyTax":509},"hud":{"county":"Macon County","year":"2027","perUnit":981,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Alabama","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":33406,"ratePer100k":321.6390710113135},"propertyCrime":{"total":140403,"ratePer100k":1351.825734514801},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":10.7,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":7.789759773604343,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":125685,"monthlyRent":981,"grossRent":981,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"AL","down":25137,"loan":100548,"mortgagePI":652.1524141374094,"monthlyTax":52.2640125,"taxRatePct":0.499,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.50% ($509 tax ÷ $102,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":75.411,"insuranceRatePct":0.72,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AL avg 0.72%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":49.050000000000004,"egi":931.95,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":98.10000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":49.050000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":49.050000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":323.8750125,"noi":608.0749875,"totalExpenses":976.0274266374095,"cashFlow":-44.07742663740942,"annualCf":-528.929119648913,"cocReturn":-2.104185541826443,"capRate":5.805704618689581},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-117.65242663740935,"delta":-74,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-73.50742663740948,"delta":-29,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-62.93017663740943,"delta":-19,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-147.30855754112372,"delta":-103,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1987-07-01) (home values −8.4% over 3 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1987-10-01 → 1988-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-106.18927638569903,"delta":-62,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-147.30855754112372,"baselineCashFlow":-44.07742663740942,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.789759773604343,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":90202.504792719,"totalCashOutlay":103651.73155665374,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AL avg 0.72%/yr)","homeValueAfter":212483.87492733024,"equityBuilt":121198.88626273707,"netCostOfBuying":7589.845293916675,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":82612.65949880233},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.875626329878509,"price":125685,"medianIncome":43707,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.499,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.50% ($509 tax ÷ $102,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":125685,"secondary":102000,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.23,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":981,"secondary":734,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.34,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":102000,"high":125685}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.34,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":734,"high":981}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.8%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":102000,"high":125685}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.34,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":734,"high":981}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Macon County, AL leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 10.7 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Macon County, AL a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Macon County's price-to-rent ratio of 10.7 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Macon County?","a":"The typical home value in Macon County is about $125,685 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 1.3% year-over-year, and up 45.5% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Macon County?","a":"The typical rent in Macon County is about $981/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Macon County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Macon County — roughly $82,613 ahead of renting, with about $121,199 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Macon County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Macon County's median home value is 2.9x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Macon County?","a":"Macon County's effective property tax rate is about 0.50% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.50% ($509 tax ÷ $102,000 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $125,685 median home is roughly $52/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Macon County, AL was $125,685 as of April 2026, up 1.3% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Macon County, AL was $981/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Macon County, AL has a price-to-rent ratio of 10.7 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=macon-al","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=macon-al"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T23:30:09.102Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Macon County, AL HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Macon County, AL HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":125685,"countyFmr":981,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Macon County, AL HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"AL","stateName":"Alabama","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}