{"area":{"county":"Luzerne County","state":"PA","stateName":"Pennsylvania","slug":"luzerne-pa","metro":"Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":142417},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":149713},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":155499},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":159562},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":169975},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":174100},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":176139},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":173503},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":178005},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":185741},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":184183},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":190161},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":195021},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":201624},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":200375},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":204047},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":207540},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":213292},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":214548},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":214466},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":223135}],"latest":223135,"yoy":7.514214127397128,"fiveYr":56.67722252259211,"sinceStart":557.6721292148078,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1363}],"latest":1363,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":63691,"population":327675,"povertyRate":15.320431031215653,"medianHomeValue":174100,"medianGrossRent":1004,"medianPropertyTax":2530},"hud":{"county":"Luzerne County","year":"2027","perUnit":1363,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Pennsylvania","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":55584,"ratePer100k":212.4973554431918},"propertyCrime":{"total":327305,"ratePer100k":1251.285386502121},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":13.6,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":9.397277093209766,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":223135,"monthlyRent":1363,"grossRent":1363,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"PA","down":44627,"loan":178508,"mortgagePI":1157.7994902219905,"monthlyTax":270.17929583333336,"taxRatePct":1.453,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.45% ($2,530 tax ÷ $174,100 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":81.81616666666667,"insuranceRatePct":0.44,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (PA avg 0.44%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":68.15,"egi":1294.85,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":136.3,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":68.15,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":68.15,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":624.5954625,"noi":670.2545374999999,"totalExpenses":1782.3949527219906,"cashFlow":-487.5449527219906,"annualCf":-5850.539432663887,"cocReturn":-13.109864953198484,"capRate":3.6045687364151737},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-589.7699527219905,"delta":-102,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-528.4349527219905,"delta":-41,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-507.99899438865725,"delta":-20,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-670.8164520592246,"delta":-183,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1983-07-01) (home values −11.4% over 3 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1983-07-01 → 1983-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-603.7864199467016,"delta":-116,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-670.8164520592246,"baselineCashFlow":-487.5449527219906,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":9.397277093209766,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":125327.23142963913,"totalCashOutlay":201523.93359113976,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (PA avg 0.44%/yr)","homeValueAfter":418420.81856426963,"equityBuilt":256357.91570653793,"netCostOfBuying":-10206.982115398161,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":135534.2135450373},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.503399224380211,"price":223135,"medianIncome":63691,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.453,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.45% ($2,530 tax ÷ $174,100 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":223135,"secondary":174100,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.28,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1363,"secondary":1004,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.36,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.28,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":174100,"high":223135}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.36,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1004,"high":1363}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 9.4%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.28,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":174100,"high":223135}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.36,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1004,"high":1363}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Luzerne County, PA leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 13.6 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Luzerne County, PA a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Luzerne County's price-to-rent ratio of 13.6 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Luzerne County?","a":"The typical home value in Luzerne County is about $223,135 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 7.5% year-over-year, and up 56.7% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Luzerne County?","a":"The typical rent in Luzerne County is about $1,363/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Luzerne County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Luzerne County — roughly $135,534 ahead of renting, with about $256,358 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Luzerne County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Luzerne County's median home value is 3.5x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Luzerne County?","a":"Luzerne County's effective property tax rate is about 1.45% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.45% ($2,530 tax ÷ $174,100 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $223,135 median home is roughly $270/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Luzerne County, PA was $223,135 as of April 2026, up 7.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Luzerne County, PA was $1,363/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Luzerne County, PA has a price-to-rent ratio of 13.6 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=luzerne-pa","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=luzerne-pa"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T11:19:33.165Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":223135,"countyFmr":1363,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Scranton--Wilkes-Barre, PA MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"PA","stateName":"Pennsylvania","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}