{"area":{"county":"Lucas County","state":"IA","stateName":"Iowa","slug":"lucas-ia","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":106123},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":108939},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":111645},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":115058},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":119356},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":120200},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":121029},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":123407},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":124233},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":126555},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":128037},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":130035},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":131358},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":132394},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":134491},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":134944},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":137215},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":137974},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":139434},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":139895},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":140300}],"latest":140300,"yoy":2.2482964690449294,"fiveYr":32.205082781300945,"sinceStart":280.6190824991183,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":951}],"latest":951,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":61793,"population":8716,"povertyRate":14.947319671182125,"medianHomeValue":120200,"medianGrossRent":709,"medianPropertyTax":1645},"hud":{"county":"Lucas County","year":"2027","perUnit":951,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Iowa","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":13982,"ratePer100k":215.67255532027266},"propertyCrime":{"total":68730,"ratePer100k":1060.161259273519},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":12.3,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":5.743322143378871,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":140300,"monthlyRent":951,"grossRent":951,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"IA","down":28060,"loan":112240,"mortgagePI":727.9865035881653,"monthlyTax":160.05891666666668,"taxRatePct":1.369,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.37% ($1,645 tax ÷ $120,200 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":67.81166666666665,"insuranceRatePct":0.58,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (IA avg 0.58%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":47.550000000000004,"egi":903.45,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":95.10000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":47.550000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":47.550000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":418.0705833333334,"noi":485.37941666666666,"totalExpenses":1146.0570869214987,"cashFlow":-242.60708692149865,"annualCf":-2911.285043057984,"cocReturn":-10.375213980962165,"capRate":4.151498930862438},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-313.9320869214987,"delta":-71,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-271.13708692149874,"delta":-29,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-259.56000358816533,"delta":-17,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-357.8422197200913,"delta":-115,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −3.5% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-267.8685614426407,"delta":-25,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-357.8422197200913,"baselineCashFlow":-242.60708692149865,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":5.743322143378871,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":87444.01840762055,"totalCashOutlay":125199.93055341915,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (IA avg 0.58%/yr)","homeValueAfter":207409.34728508836,"equityBuilt":105509.48724099062,"netCostOfBuying":47750.44331242853,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":39693.57509519202},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.270483711747285,"price":140300,"medianIncome":61793,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.369,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.37% ($1,645 tax ÷ $120,200 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":140300,"secondary":120200,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.17,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":951,"secondary":709,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.34,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":120200,"high":140300}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.34,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":709,"high":951}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 5.7%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":120200,"high":140300}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.34,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":709,"high":951}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Lucas County, IA leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 12.3 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Lucas County, IA a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Lucas County's price-to-rent ratio of 12.3 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Lucas County?","a":"The typical home value in Lucas County is about $140,300 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 2.2% year-over-year, and up 32.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Lucas County?","a":"The typical rent in Lucas County is about $951/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Lucas County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Lucas County — roughly $39,694 ahead of renting, with about $105,509 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Lucas County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Lucas County's median home value is 2.3x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Lucas County?","a":"Lucas County's effective property tax rate is about 1.37% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.37% ($1,645 tax ÷ $120,200 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $140,300 median home is roughly $160/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Lucas County, IA was $140,300 as of April 2026, up 2.2% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Lucas County, IA was $951/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Lucas County, IA has a price-to-rent ratio of 12.3 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=lucas-ia","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=lucas-ia"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T06:06:43.260Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":140300,"countyFmr":951,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"IA","stateName":"Iowa","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}