{"area":{"county":"Lowndes County","state":"MS","stateName":"Mississippi","slug":"lowndes-ms","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":139052},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":144115},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":151542},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":155781},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":160398},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":164100},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":163037},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":166997},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":168459},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":168099},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":180315},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":170265},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":173933},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":177132},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":179258},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":181154},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":186479},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":185000},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":184862},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":188193},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":187348}],"latest":187348,"yoy":0.4660042149518176,"fiveYr":34.732330351235504,"sinceStart":227.9098260230336,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":931}],"latest":931,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":53812,"population":57838,"povertyRate":17.26485698540522,"medianHomeValue":164100,"medianGrossRent":930,"medianPropertyTax":992},"hud":{"county":"Lowndes County","year":"2027","perUnit":931,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Mississippi","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":9790,"ratePer100k":165.6985403634197},"propertyCrime":{"total":57848,"ratePer100k":979.0938879410729},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":16.8,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 16.8× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.144601162615793,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":187348,"monthlyRent":931,"grossRent":931,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MS","down":37469.6,"loan":149878.4,"mortgagePI":972.1084495668964,"monthlyTax":94.45461666666667,"taxRatePct":0.605,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.60% ($992 tax ÷ $164,100 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":115.53126666666667,"insuranceRatePct":0.74,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MS avg 0.74%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":46.550000000000004,"egi":884.45,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":93.10000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":46.550000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":46.550000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":396.1858833333334,"noi":488.26411666666667,"totalExpenses":1368.2943329002298,"cashFlow":-483.84433290022974,"annualCf":-5806.131994802757,"cocReturn":-15.495580403320977,"capRate":3.127425646390674},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-553.6693329002297,"delta":-70,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-511.7743329002298,"delta":-28,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-512.7271495668965,"delta":-29,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-637.7222492191943,"delta":-154,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −6.4% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2009-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-528.3784578118232,"delta":-45,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-637.7222492191943,"baselineCashFlow":-483.84433290022974,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.144601162615793,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":85605.02748422162,"totalCashOutlay":156877.22318077766,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MS avg 0.74%/yr)","homeValueAfter":284403.16679180483,"equityBuilt":148332.35439307615,"netCostOfBuying":46014.46878770151,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":39590.55869652011},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.4815282836542036,"price":187348,"medianIncome":53812,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.605,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.60% ($992 tax ÷ $164,100 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":187348,"secondary":164100,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":931,"secondary":930,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":164100,"high":187348}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":930,"high":931}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":164100,"high":187348}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":930,"high":931}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Lowndes County, MS is a moderate market — a 16.8x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Lowndes County, MS a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Lowndes County's 16.8x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Lowndes County?","a":"The typical home value in Lowndes County is about $187,348 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 0.5% year-over-year, and up 34.7% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Lowndes County?","a":"The typical rent in Lowndes County is about $931/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Lowndes County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Lowndes County — roughly $39,591 ahead of renting, with about $148,332 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Lowndes County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Lowndes County's median home value is 3.5x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Lowndes County?","a":"Lowndes County's effective property tax rate is about 0.60% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.60% ($992 tax ÷ $164,100 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $187,348 median home is roughly $94/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Lowndes County, MS was $187,348 as of April 2026, up 0.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Lowndes County, MS was $931/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Lowndes County, MS has a price-to-rent ratio of 16.8 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=lowndes-ms","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=lowndes-ms"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T20:24:36.177Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":187348,"countyFmr":931,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"MS","stateName":"Mississippi","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}