{"area":{"county":"Lowndes County","state":"AL","stateName":"Alabama","slug":"lowndes-al","metro":"Montgomery, AL MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":70914},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":75136},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":76767},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":80059},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":82934},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":86300},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":86937},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":87096},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":87613},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":90987},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":88349},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":88994},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":91172},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":93177},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":95549},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":96457},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":94322},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":96720},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":98269},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":100894},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":99990}],"latest":99990,"yoy":6.009202519030555,"fiveYr":41.00177680006769,"sinceStart":167.28862038546873,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1150}],"latest":1150,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":37052,"population":9833,"povertyRate":29.948240165631468,"medianHomeValue":86300,"medianGrossRent":710,"medianPropertyTax":337},"hud":{"county":"Lowndes County","year":"2027","perUnit":1150,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Alabama","period":"11-2023 to 10-2025","window":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"violentCrime":{"total":37912,"ratePer100k":365.02366222178404},"propertyCrime":{"total":163626,"ratePer100k":1575.4210211727589},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"priceToRentRatio":7.2,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is positive at standard assumptions)","priceCagr":7.114682090781388,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":99990,"monthlyRent":1150,"grossRent":1150,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"AL","down":19998,"loan":79992,"mortgagePI":518.826589406847,"monthlyTax":32.49675,"taxRatePct":0.39,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.39% ($337 tax ÷ $86,300 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":59.994,"insuranceRatePct":0.72,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AL avg 0.72%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":57.5,"egi":1092.5,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":115,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":57.5,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":57.5,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":322.49075,"noi":770.0092500000001,"totalExpenses":841.3173394068469,"cashFlow":251.18266059315306,"annualCf":3014.1919271178367,"cocReturn":15.07246688227741,"capRate":9.241035103510352},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":164.93266059315306,"delta":-86,"survives":true},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":216.68266059315306,"delta":-34,"survives":true},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":236.18416059315302,"delta":-15,"survives":true},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":169.05606808758432,"delta":-82,"survives":true},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1986-01-01) (home values −6.9% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2009-04-01 → 2010-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":191.93811546647385,"delta":-59,"survives":true}],"survived":5,"total":5,"score":100,"worstCashFlow":164.93266059315306,"baselineCashFlow":251.18266059315306,"framing":"scored","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.114682090781388,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":105741.97809544021,"totalCashOutlay":82075.36513778275,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AL avg 0.72%/yr)","homeValueAfter":161770.59788885302,"equityBuilt":89147.88223803799,"netCostOfBuying":12925.482899744762,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":92816.49519569545},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.6986397495411856,"price":99990,"medianIncome":37052,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.39,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.39% ($337 tax ÷ $86,300 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":99990,"secondary":86300,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.16,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1150,"secondary":710,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.62,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.16,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":86300,"high":99990}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.62,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":710,"high":1150}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.16,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":86300,"high":99990}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.62,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":710,"high":1150}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Lowndes County, AL leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 7.2 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is positive (251/mo at standard assumptions).","faqs":[{"q":"Is Lowndes County, AL a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Lowndes County's price-to-rent ratio of 7.2 is in the favorable range, and modeled investor cash flow is positive (about $251/mo at 20% down)."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Lowndes County?","a":"The typical home value in Lowndes County is about $99,990 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 6.0% year-over-year, and up 41.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Lowndes County?","a":"The typical rent in Lowndes County is about $1,150/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Lowndes County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Lowndes County — roughly $92,816 ahead of renting, with about $89,148 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Lowndes County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Lowndes County's median home value is 2.7x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Lowndes County?","a":"Lowndes County's effective property tax rate is about 0.39% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.39% ($337 tax ÷ $86,300 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $99,990 median home is roughly $32/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Lowndes County, AL was $99,990 as of April 2026, up 6.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Lowndes County, AL was $1,150/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Lowndes County, AL has a price-to-rent ratio of 7.2 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=lowndes-al","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=lowndes-al"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:16:16.260Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Montgomery, AL MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Montgomery, AL MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":99990,"countyFmr":1150,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Montgomery, AL MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"AL","stateName":"Alabama","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}