{"area":{"county":"Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region","state":"CT","stateName":"Connecticut","slug":"lower-connecticut-river-valley-planning-region-ct","metro":"Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":331032},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":340398},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":352072},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":364934},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":377393},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":379700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":380644},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":391496},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":407783},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":411155},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":430116},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":433908},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":442680},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":456888},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":468788},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":475394},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":479815},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":481475},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":484970},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":495787},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":500698}],"latest":500698,"yoy":4.352302449902567,"fiveYr":51.253655235747594,"sinceStart":186.52082105395678,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1933}],"latest":1933,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":104428,"population":175822,"povertyRate":6.796368352788586,"medianHomeValue":379700,"medianGrossRent":1454,"medianPropertyTax":6357},"hud":{"county":"Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region","year":"2027","perUnit":1933,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Connecticut","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":7652,"ratePer100k":103.72791511770652},"propertyCrime":{"total":82299,"ratePer100k":1115.6173139404245},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":21.6,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":8.62907876603709,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":500698,"monthlyRent":1933,"grossRent":1933,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"CT","down":100139.6,"loan":400558.4,"mortgagePI":2598.0141580440995,"monthlyTax":698.4737099999999,"taxRatePct":1.674,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.67% ($6,357 tax ÷ $379,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":216.9691333333333,"insuranceRatePct":0.52,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CT avg 0.52%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":96.65,"egi":1836.35,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":193.3,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":96.65,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":96.65,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":1302.0428433333334,"noi":534.3071566666665,"totalExpenses":3900.057001377433,"cashFlow":-2063.707001377433,"annualCf":-24764.484016529193,"cocReturn":-24.729960990985774,"capRate":1.2805495288577142},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2208.6820013774327,"delta":-145,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2121.697001377433,"delta":-58,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2117.9492847107663,"delta":-54,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-2474.954332254053,"delta":-411,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −6.3% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1992-04-01 → 1993-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-2155.6753117754542,"delta":-92,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-2474.954332254053,"baselineCashFlow":-2063.707001377433,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":8.62907876603709,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":177738.47274650953,"totalCashOutlay":469128.48374614626,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CT avg 0.52%/yr)","homeValueAfter":893713.940185518,"equityBuilt":530057.0896911512,"netCostOfBuying":39210.99405499507,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":138527.47869151447},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.794671927069368,"price":500698,"medianIncome":104428,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.674,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.67% ($6,357 tax ÷ $379,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":500698,"secondary":379700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.32,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1933,"secondary":1454,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.33,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.32,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":379700,"high":500698}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.33,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1454,"high":1933}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 8.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.32,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":379700,"high":500698}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.33,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1454,"high":1933}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, CT is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 21.6x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, CT a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 21.6x, Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region?","a":"The typical home value in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region is about $500,698 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 4.4% year-over-year, and up 51.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region?","a":"The typical rent in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region is about $1,933/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region — roughly $138,527 ahead of renting, with about $530,057 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region's median home value is 4.8x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region?","a":"Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region's effective property tax rate is about 1.67% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.67% ($6,357 tax ÷ $379,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $500,698 median home is roughly $698/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, CT was $500,698 as of April 2026, up 4.4% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, CT was $1,933/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Lower Connecticut River Valley Planning Region, CT has a price-to-rent ratio of 21.6 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=lower-connecticut-river-valley-planning-region-ct","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=lower-connecticut-river-valley-planning-region-ct"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:47:47.370Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":["2019","2020","2021","2019","2020","2021"],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":500698,"countyFmr":1933,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"CT","stateName":"Connecticut","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}