{"area":{"county":"Louisa County","state":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","slug":"louisa-va","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":276436},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":286229},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":294650},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":306853},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":314068},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":315300},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":319339},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":324275},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":329554},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":337411},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":342312},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":345110},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":353812},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":358053},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":362390},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":369165},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":368127},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":371972},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":375967},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":378184},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":379530}],"latest":379530,"yoy":3.0975723052098867,"fiveYr":37.29398486448943,"sinceStart":331.3478127450646,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1291}],"latest":1291,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":86689,"population":39980,"povertyRate":10.02866770608057,"medianHomeValue":315300,"medianGrossRent":1220,"medianPropertyTax":1883},"hud":{"county":"Louisa County","year":"2027","perUnit":1291,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Virginia","period":"11-2023 to 10-2025","window":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"violentCrime":{"total":38972,"ratePer100k":219.43429285255235},"propertyCrime":{"total":268501,"ratePer100k":1511.8117383045048},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"priceToRentRatio":24.5,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":6.545244726363197,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":379530,"monthlyRent":1291,"grossRent":1291,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"VA","down":75906,"loan":303624,"mortgagePI":1969.2994847242792,"monthlyTax":188.81617500000002,"taxRatePct":0.597,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.60% ($1,883 tax ÷ $315,300 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":177.11400000000003,"insuranceRatePct":0.56,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":64.55,"egi":1226.45,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":129.1,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":64.55,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":64.55,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":624.130175,"noi":602.319825,"totalExpenses":2593.429659724279,"cashFlow":-1366.9796597242791,"annualCf":-16403.75591669135,"cocReturn":-21.610618286685305,"capRate":1.904418069717809},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1463.8046597242792,"delta":-97,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1405.7096597242792,"delta":-39,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1411.2581597242793,"delta":-44,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1678.7058888835795,"delta":-312,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −11.4% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1477.3547755722866,"delta":-110,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1678.7058888835795,"baselineCashFlow":-1366.9796597242791,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.545244726363197,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":118706.86410540287,"totalCashOutlay":317447.3167377334,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","homeValueAfter":591540.670615608,"equityBuilt":315888.1126502736,"netCostOfBuying":77465.20408745977,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":41241.6600179431},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.378064114247483,"price":379530,"medianIncome":86689,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.597,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.60% ($1,883 tax ÷ $315,300 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":379530,"secondary":315300,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1291,"secondary":1220,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.06,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":315300,"high":379530}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.06,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1220,"high":1291}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":315300,"high":379530}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.06,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1220,"high":1291}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Louisa County, VA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 24.5x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Louisa County, VA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 24.5x, Louisa County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Louisa County?","a":"The typical home value in Louisa County is about $379,530 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.1% year-over-year, and up 37.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Louisa County?","a":"The typical rent in Louisa County is about $1,291/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Louisa County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Louisa County — roughly $41,242 ahead of renting, with about $315,888 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Louisa County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Louisa County's median home value is 4.4x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Louisa County?","a":"Louisa County's effective property tax rate is about 0.60% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.60% ($1,883 tax ÷ $315,300 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $379,530 median home is roughly $189/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Louisa County, VA was $379,530 as of April 2026, up 3.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Louisa County, VA was $1,291/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Louisa County, VA has a price-to-rent ratio of 24.5 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=louisa-va","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=louisa-va"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:35:29.607Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":379530,"countyFmr":1291,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}