{"area":{"county":"Loudoun County","state":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","slug":"loudoun-va","metro":"Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":722133},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":731250},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":743143},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":764004},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":758826},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":743800},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":739410},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":755581},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":762766},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":769801},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":792106},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":747908},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":784959},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":785334},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":785052},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":801336},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":781413},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":803174},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":797678},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":761472},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":773459}],"latest":773459,"yoy":-1.017899625422152,"fiveYr":7.107554979484389,"sinceStart":312.3003688778012,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":2438}],"latest":2438,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":181765,"population":432998,"povertyRate":4.234450593435661,"medianHomeValue":743800,"medianGrossRent":2386,"medianPropertyTax":6325},"hud":{"county":"Loudoun County","year":"2027","perUnit":2438,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Virginia","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":35217,"ratePer100k":198.2915295953078},"propertyCrime":{"total":230747,"ratePer100k":1299.2354709239428},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":26.4,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":1.3829298399880896,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":773459,"monthlyRent":2438,"grossRent":2438,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"VA","down":154691.80000000002,"loan":618767.2,"mortgagePI":4013.312281388444,"monthlyTax":547.8667916666667,"taxRatePct":0.85,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.85% ($6,325 tax ÷ $743,800 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":360.9475333333334,"insuranceRatePct":0.56,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":121.9,"egi":2316.1,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":243.8,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":121.9,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":121.9,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":1396.4143250000002,"noi":919.6856749999997,"totalExpenses":5409.7266063884435,"cashFlow":-3093.626606388444,"annualCf":-37123.51927666133,"cocReturn":-23.99837565834862,"capRate":1.426866595385146},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-3276.4766063884435,"delta":-183,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-3166.766606388444,"delta":-73,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-3183.8634897217776,"delta":-90,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-3728.905655420993,"delta":-635,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −15.7% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-04-01 → 2008-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-3380.0931853363027,"delta":-286,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-3728.905655420993,"baselineCashFlow":-3093.626606388444,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":1.3829298399880896,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":224172.99356233323,"totalCashOutlay":624446.0720163669,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","homeValueAfter":851512.7608931939,"equityBuilt":289749.6543369015,"netCostOfBuying":489388.2176794654,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":265215.2241171322},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.255269166231122,"price":773459,"medianIncome":181765,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.85,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.85% ($6,325 tax ÷ $743,800 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":773459,"secondary":743800,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.04,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":2438,"secondary":2386,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.02,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.04,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":743800,"high":773459}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.02,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":2386,"high":2438}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 1.4%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.04,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":743800,"high":773459}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.02,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":2386,"high":2438}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Loudoun County, VA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 26.4x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Loudoun County, VA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 26.4x, Loudoun County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Loudoun County?","a":"The typical home value in Loudoun County is about $773,459 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), down 1.0% year-over-year, and up 7.1% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Loudoun County?","a":"The typical rent in Loudoun County is about $2,438/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Loudoun County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Loudoun County by about $265,215 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Loudoun County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Loudoun County's median home value is 4.3x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Loudoun County?","a":"Loudoun County's effective property tax rate is about 0.85% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.85% ($6,325 tax ÷ $743,800 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $773,459 median home is roughly $548/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Loudoun County, VA was $773,459 as of April 2026, down 1.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Loudoun County, VA was $2,438/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Loudoun County, VA has a price-to-rent ratio of 26.4 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=loudoun-va","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=loudoun-va"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T02:07:49.259Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":773459,"countyFmr":2438,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}