{"area":{"county":"Lincoln County","state":"WA","stateName":"Washington","slug":"lincoln-wa","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":256368},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":267680},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":279070},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":292536},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":297558},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":292800},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":288016},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":286025},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":287995},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":294416},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":297864},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":298846},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":302047},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":304259},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":306572},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":310089},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":310459},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":308663},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":313004},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":309260},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":307528}],"latest":307528,"yoy":-0.9440860145784146,"fiveYr":19.955688697497347,"sinceStart":482.36218683129135,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1091}],"latest":1091,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":71512,"population":11489,"povertyRate":12.458296751536436,"medianHomeValue":292800,"medianGrossRent":883,"medianPropertyTax":1744},"hud":{"county":"Lincoln County","year":"2027","perUnit":1091,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Washington","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":42104,"ratePer100k":263.11645265228685},"propertyCrime":{"total":287985,"ratePer100k":1799.676791209121},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":23.5,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":3.706585010193497,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":307528,"monthlyRent":1091,"grossRent":1091,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"WA","down":61505.600000000006,"loan":246022.4,"mortgagePI":1595.6966035314417,"monthlyTax":152.73890666666668,"taxRatePct":0.596,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.60% ($1,744 tax ÷ $292,800 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":107.63479999999998,"insuranceRatePct":0.42,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WA avg 0.42%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":54.550000000000004,"egi":1036.45,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":109.10000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":54.550000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":54.550000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":478.5737066666667,"noi":557.8762933333334,"totalExpenses":2074.2703101981083,"cashFlow":-1037.8203101981085,"annualCf":-12453.843722377302,"cocReturn":-20.24830864567991,"capRate":2.176879997918889},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1119.6453101981083,"delta":-82,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1070.5503101981085,"delta":-33,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1064.7290101981084,"delta":-27,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1290.407836351249,"delta":-253,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −10.2% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-04-01 → 2009-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1121.2712515294197,"delta":-83,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1290.407836351249,"baselineCashFlow":-1037.8203101981085,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":3.706585010193497,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":100316.95487141327,"totalCashOutlay":249951.7769091008,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WA avg 0.42%/yr)","homeValueAfter":396761.0199983951,"equityBuilt":173403.49925968316,"netCostOfBuying":138053.87764941764,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":37736.92277800437},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.300369168810829,"price":307528,"medianIncome":71512,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.596,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.60% ($1,744 tax ÷ $292,800 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":307528,"secondary":292800,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.05,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1091,"secondary":883,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.24,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":292800,"high":307528}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.24,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":883,"high":1091}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 3.7%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":292800,"high":307528}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.24,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":883,"high":1091}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Lincoln County, WA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 23.5x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Lincoln County, WA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 23.5x, Lincoln County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Lincoln County?","a":"The typical home value in Lincoln County is about $307,528 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), down 0.9% year-over-year, and up 20.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Lincoln County?","a":"The typical rent in Lincoln County is about $1,091/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Lincoln County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Lincoln County by about $37,737 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Lincoln County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Lincoln County's median home value is 4.3x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Lincoln County?","a":"Lincoln County's effective property tax rate is about 0.60% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.60% ($1,744 tax ÷ $292,800 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $307,528 median home is roughly $153/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Lincoln County, WA was $307,528 as of April 2026, down 0.9% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Lincoln County, WA was $1,091/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Lincoln County, WA has a price-to-rent ratio of 23.5 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=lincoln-wa","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=lincoln-wa"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T08:31:35.819Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":307528,"countyFmr":1091,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"WA","stateName":"Washington","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}