{"area":{"county":"Lincoln County","state":"NM","stateName":"New Mexico","slug":"lincoln-nm","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":198160},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":207319},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":214108},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":222143},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":231901},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":233200},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":235097},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":238403},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":240593},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":247699},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":247511},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":252838},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":255021},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":257346},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":262368},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":264882},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":268773},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":264375},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":264076},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":270053},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":265415}],"latest":265415,"yoy":-1.249381448285356,"fiveYr":33.93974566007267,"sinceStart":308.56962531941747,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1063}],"latest":1063,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":53303,"population":20224,"povertyRate":19.260293091416607,"medianHomeValue":233200,"medianGrossRent":956,"medianPropertyTax":1246},"hud":{"county":"Lincoln County","year":"2027","perUnit":1063,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"New Mexico","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":24645,"ratePer100k":578.4516039386816},"propertyCrime":{"total":84484,"ratePer100k":1982.9541613777874},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":20.8,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":6.019406584807263,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":265415,"monthlyRent":1063,"grossRent":1063,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NM","down":53083,"loan":212332,"mortgagePI":1377.1813104052237,"monthlyTax":118.109675,"taxRatePct":0.534,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.53% ($1,246 tax ÷ $233,200 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":145.97825,"insuranceRatePct":0.66,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NM avg 0.66%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":53.150000000000006,"egi":1009.85,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":106.30000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":53.150000000000006,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":53.150000000000006,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":476.68792499999995,"noi":533.1620750000001,"totalExpenses":1853.8692354052237,"cashFlow":-844.0192354052236,"annualCf":-10128.230824862683,"cocReturn":-19.07998949732058,"capRate":2.4105438275907543},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-923.7442354052238,"delta":-80,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-875.9092354052236,"delta":-32,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-880.5137979052237,"delta":-36,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1062.0173307134091,"delta":-218,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −7.3% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-902.0370597466606,"delta":-58,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1062.0173307134091,"baselineCashFlow":-844.0192354052236,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.019406584807263,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":97742.36757865472,"totalCashOutlay":219814.20628588262,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NM avg 0.66%/yr)","homeValueAfter":399597.7616378423,"equityBuilt":206826.90380744866,"netCostOfBuying":66070.30247843397,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":31672.06510022076},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.979363262855749,"price":265415,"medianIncome":53303,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.534,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.53% ($1,246 tax ÷ $233,200 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":265415,"secondary":233200,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1063,"secondary":956,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.11,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":233200,"high":265415}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":956,"high":1063}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":233200,"high":265415}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.11,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":956,"high":1063}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Lincoln County, NM is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 20.8x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Lincoln County, NM a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 20.8x, Lincoln County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Lincoln County?","a":"The typical home value in Lincoln County is about $265,415 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), down 1.2% year-over-year, and up 33.9% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Lincoln County?","a":"The typical rent in Lincoln County is about $1,063/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Lincoln County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Lincoln County — roughly $31,672 ahead of renting, with about $206,827 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Lincoln County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Lincoln County's median home value is 5.0x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Lincoln County?","a":"Lincoln County's effective property tax rate is about 0.53% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.53% ($1,246 tax ÷ $233,200 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $265,415 median home is roughly $118/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Lincoln County, NM was $265,415 as of April 2026, down 1.2% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Lincoln County, NM was $1,063/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Lincoln County, NM has a price-to-rent ratio of 20.8 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=lincoln-nm","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=lincoln-nm"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:33:33.597Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":265415,"countyFmr":1063,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"NM","stateName":"New Mexico","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}