{"area":{"county":"Lincoln County","state":"ME","stateName":"Maine","slug":"lincoln-me","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":276672},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":290687},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":301414},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":314583},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":334648},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":332700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":340287},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":342128},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":355749},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":369041},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":362399},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":375395},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":380113},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":383385},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":390315},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":401231},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":402702},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":403680},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":406007},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":412558},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":407182}],"latest":407182,"yoy":1.1124851627257872,"fiveYr":47.17137982882258,"sinceStart":395.34920499750615,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1307}],"latest":1307,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":76875,"population":36099,"povertyRate":7.89987271955876,"medianHomeValue":332700,"medianGrossRent":1055,"medianPropertyTax":2828},"hud":{"county":"Lincoln County","year":"2027","perUnit":1307,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Maine","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":2310,"ratePer100k":81.63271075728298},"propertyCrime":{"total":22987,"ratePer100k":812.3338191245298},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":26,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":8.03619192730416,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":407182,"monthlyRent":1307,"grossRent":1307,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"ME","down":81436.40000000001,"loan":325745.6,"mortgagePI":2112.7797612547133,"monthlyTax":288.42058333333335,"taxRatePct":0.85,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.85% ($2,828 tax ÷ $332,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":142.5137,"insuranceRatePct":0.42,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (ME avg 0.42%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":65.35000000000001,"egi":1241.65,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":130.70000000000002,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":65.35000000000001,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":65.35000000000001,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":692.3342833333335,"noi":549.3157166666666,"totalExpenses":2805.114044588047,"cashFlow":-1563.4640445880468,"annualCf":-18761.56853505656,"cocReturn":-23.038307851349714,"capRate":1.6188801567849267},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1661.489044588047,"delta":-98,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1602.6740445880469,"delta":-39,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1599.0924695880467,"delta":-36,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1897.9021902986424,"delta":-334,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −6.9% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1992-01-01 → 1993-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1630.8038683059954,"delta":-67,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1897.9021902986424,"baselineCashFlow":-1563.4640445880468,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":8.03619192730416,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":120178.05684412205,"totalCashOutlay":355660.2930490656,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (ME avg 0.42%/yr)","homeValueAfter":699477.0105350425,"equityBuilt":403740.8108737752,"netCostOfBuying":33355.88217529043,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":86822.17466883162},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.296676422764228,"price":407182,"medianIncome":76875,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.85,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.85% ($2,828 tax ÷ $332,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":407182,"secondary":332700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1307,"secondary":1055,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.24,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":332700,"high":407182}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.24,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1055,"high":1307}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (229d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (15d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 8.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":229,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":15,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":332700,"high":407182}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.24,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1055,"high":1307}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Lincoln County, ME is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 26.0x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Lincoln County, ME a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 26.0x, Lincoln County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Lincoln County?","a":"The typical home value in Lincoln County is about $407,182 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 1.1% year-over-year, and up 47.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Lincoln County?","a":"The typical rent in Lincoln County is about $1,307/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Lincoln County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Lincoln County — roughly $86,822 ahead of renting, with about $403,741 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Lincoln County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Lincoln County's median home value is 5.3x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Lincoln County?","a":"Lincoln County's effective property tax rate is about 0.85% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.85% ($2,828 tax ÷ $332,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $407,182 median home is roughly $288/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Lincoln County, ME was $407,182 as of April 2026, up 1.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Lincoln County, ME was $1,307/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Lincoln County, ME has a price-to-rent ratio of 26.0 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=lincoln-me","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=lincoln-me"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T12:21:45.336Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":407182,"countyFmr":1307,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"ME","stateName":"Maine","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}