{"area":{"county":"Lincoln County","state":"KS","stateName":"Kansas","slug":"lincoln-ks","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":85775},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":88282},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":90425},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":93875},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":96566},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":96900},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":97961},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":98493},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":101304},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":104035},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":105628},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":107864},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":108413},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":109817},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":111537},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":113391},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":113810},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":114854},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":116048},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":116815},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":117605}],"latest":117605,"yoy":3.3345048765486336,"fiveYr":37.10871466044885,"sinceStart":315.55068725486734,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":961}],"latest":961,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":57500,"population":2923,"povertyRate":11.343075852470424,"medianHomeValue":96900,"medianGrossRent":634,"medianPropertyTax":1419},"hud":{"county":"Lincoln County","year":"2027","perUnit":961,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Kansas","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":22775,"ratePer100k":382.4876898583242},"propertyCrime":{"total":92828,"ratePer100k":1558.971120709924},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":10.2,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.516469938352176,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":117605,"monthlyRent":961,"grossRent":961,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"KS","down":23521,"loan":94084,"mortgagePI":610.22703317524,"monthlyTax":143.4781,"taxRatePct":1.464,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.46% ($1,419 tax ÷ $96,900 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":76.44325,"insuranceRatePct":0.78,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (KS avg 0.78%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":48.050000000000004,"egi":912.95,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":96.10000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":48.050000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":48.050000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":412.12135000000006,"noi":500.82865,"totalExpenses":1022.3483831752401,"cashFlow":-109.39838317523999,"annualCf":-1312.7805981028798,"cocReturn":-5.581312861285149,"capRate":5.11027915479784},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-181.47338317524003,"delta":-72,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-138.22838317524003,"delta":-29,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-128.50919567524,"delta":-19,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-205.99302175527197,"delta":-97,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −5.1% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-145.9608352580409,"delta":-37,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-205.99302175527197,"baselineCashFlow":-109.39838317523999,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.516469938352176,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":88363.51386932004,"totalCashOutlay":106269.12733514591,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (KS avg 0.78%/yr)","homeValueAfter":182954.51923085636,"equityBuilt":97538.03284107642,"netCostOfBuying":32252.09449406949,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":56111.41937525055},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.045304347826087,"price":117605,"medianIncome":57500,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.464,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.46% ($1,419 tax ÷ $96,900 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":117605,"secondary":96900,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.21,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":961,"secondary":634,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.52,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":96900,"high":117605}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.52,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":634,"high":961}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":96900,"high":117605}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.52,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":634,"high":961}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Lincoln County, KS leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 10.2 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Lincoln County, KS a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Lincoln County's price-to-rent ratio of 10.2 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Lincoln County?","a":"The typical home value in Lincoln County is about $117,605 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.3% year-over-year, and up 37.1% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Lincoln County?","a":"The typical rent in Lincoln County is about $961/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Lincoln County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Lincoln County — roughly $56,111 ahead of renting, with about $97,538 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Lincoln County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Lincoln County's median home value is 2.0x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Lincoln County?","a":"Lincoln County's effective property tax rate is about 1.46% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.46% ($1,419 tax ÷ $96,900 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $117,605 median home is roughly $143/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Lincoln County, KS was $117,605 as of April 2026, up 3.3% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Lincoln County, KS was $961/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Lincoln County, KS has a price-to-rent ratio of 10.2 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=lincoln-ks","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=lincoln-ks"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:28:15.551Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":117605,"countyFmr":961,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"KS","stateName":"Kansas","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}