{"area":{"county":"Lincoln County","state":"AR","stateName":"Arkansas","slug":"lincoln-ar","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":90342},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":94457},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":99753},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":102727},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":106176},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":108000},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":109094},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":111197},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":112287},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":113562},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":115234},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":116964},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":118313},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":119972},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":120255},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":120810},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":123172},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":122489},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":125060},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":124501},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":124562}],"latest":124562,"yoy":1.1285032312538563,"fiveYr":37.87828474020943,"sinceStart":270.1913932477413,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":909}],"latest":909,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":51778,"population":12950,"povertyRate":15.354556947477302,"medianHomeValue":108000,"medianGrossRent":744,"medianPropertyTax":566},"hud":{"county":"Lincoln County","year":"2027","perUnit":909,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Arkansas","period":"09-2024 to 08-2026","window":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":31338,"ratePer100k":503.0514085856804},"propertyCrime":{"total":98358,"ratePer100k":1578.8860311975989},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":11.4,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.635790831462995,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":124562,"monthlyRent":909,"grossRent":909,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"AR","down":24912.4,"loan":99649.6,"mortgagePI":646.3254088378407,"monthlyTax":54.392073333333336,"taxRatePct":0.524,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.52% ($566 tax ÷ $108,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":72.66116666666666,"insuranceRatePct":0.7,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AR avg 0.7%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":45.45,"egi":863.55,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":90.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":45.45,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":45.45,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":308.85323999999997,"noi":554.69676,"totalExpenses":955.1786488378407,"cashFlow":-91.62864883784061,"annualCf":-1099.5437860540874,"cocReturn":-4.41364054067086,"capRate":5.343813618920699},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-159.80364883784057,"delta":-68,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-118.8986488378406,"delta":-27,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-109.7939405045073,"delta":-18,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-193.93740587033028,"delta":-102,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −6.6% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2009-10-01 → 2010-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-136.63778405324695,"delta":-45,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-193.93740587033028,"baselineCashFlow":-91.62864883784061,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.635790831462995,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":83582.13746848275,"totalCashOutlay":104042.37639140103,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AR avg 0.7%/yr)","homeValueAfter":195301.92840124204,"equityBuilt":104832.57439687346,"netCostOfBuying":24122.201994527582,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":59459.93547395516},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.405693537795975,"price":124562,"medianIncome":51778,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.524,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.52% ($566 tax ÷ $108,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":124562,"secondary":108000,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.15,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":909,"secondary":744,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":108000,"high":124562}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":744,"high":909}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":108000,"high":124562}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":744,"high":909}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Lincoln County, AR leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 11.4 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Lincoln County, AR a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Lincoln County's price-to-rent ratio of 11.4 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Lincoln County?","a":"The typical home value in Lincoln County is about $124,562 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 1.1% year-over-year, and up 37.9% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Lincoln County?","a":"The typical rent in Lincoln County is about $909/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Lincoln County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Lincoln County — roughly $59,460 ahead of renting, with about $104,833 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Lincoln County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Lincoln County's median home value is 2.4x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Lincoln County?","a":"Lincoln County's effective property tax rate is about 0.52% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.52% ($566 tax ÷ $108,000 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $124,562 median home is roughly $54/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Lincoln County, AR was $124,562 as of April 2026, up 1.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Lincoln County, AR was $909/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Lincoln County, AR has a price-to-rent ratio of 11.4 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=lincoln-ar","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=lincoln-ar"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:20:47.176Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":124562,"countyFmr":909,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"AR","stateName":"Arkansas","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}