{"area":{"county":"Lexington city","state":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","slug":"lexington-va","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":241279},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":249826},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":257176},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":267828},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":274125},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":275200},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":278725},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":283033},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":287641},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":294499},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":298777},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":301219},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":308814},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":312515},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":316301},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":322215},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":321309},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":324665},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":328151},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":330086},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":331261}],"latest":331261,"yoy":3.0973299845320237,"fiveYr":37.293755362049744,"sinceStart":331.3518933277775,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1057}],"latest":1057,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":84517,"population":7525,"povertyRate":14.044032444959445,"medianHomeValue":275200,"medianGrossRent":1081,"medianPropertyTax":2224},"hud":{"county":"Lexington city","year":"2027","perUnit":1057,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Virginia","period":"11-2023 to 10-2025","window":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"violentCrime":{"total":38972,"ratePer100k":219.43429285255235},"propertyCrime":{"total":268501,"ratePer100k":1511.8117383045048},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"priceToRentRatio":26.1,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":6.5452091009746916,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":331261,"monthlyRent":1057,"grossRent":1057,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"VA","down":66252.2,"loan":265008.8,"mortgagePI":1718.8420325382692,"monthlyTax":223.04907333333335,"taxRatePct":0.808,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.81% ($2,224 tax ÷ $275,200 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":154.58846666666668,"insuranceRatePct":0.56,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":52.85,"egi":1004.15,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":105.7,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":52.85,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":52.85,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":589.03754,"noi":415.11245999999994,"totalExpenses":2307.8795725382693,"cashFlow":-1303.7295725382692,"annualCf":-15644.75487045923,"cocReturn":-23.613940171736534,"capRate":1.503753692707563},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1383.0045725382693,"delta":-79,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1335.4395725382692,"delta":-32,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1342.3766892049362,"delta":-39,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1575.8101521961066,"delta":-272,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −11.4% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1394.09928677997,"delta":-90,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1575.8101521961066,"baselineCashFlow":-1303.7295725382692,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.5452091009746916,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":97190.67030163504,"totalCashOutlay":277073.981410897,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","homeValueAfter":516306.7358109286,"equityBuilt":275711.9422395254,"netCostOfBuying":67614.23917137162,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":29576.431130263416},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.91945999029781,"price":331261,"medianIncome":84517,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.808,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.81% ($2,224 tax ÷ $275,200 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":331261,"secondary":275200,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1057,"secondary":1081,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":0.98,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":275200,"high":331261}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":0.98,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1057,"high":1081}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":275200,"high":331261}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":0.98,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1057,"high":1081}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Lexington city, VA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 26.1x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Lexington city, VA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 26.1x, Lexington city is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Lexington city?","a":"The typical home value in Lexington city is about $331,261 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.1% year-over-year, and up 37.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Lexington city?","a":"The typical rent in Lexington city is about $1,057/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Lexington city?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Lexington city — roughly $29,576 ahead of renting, with about $275,712 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Lexington city affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Lexington city's median home value is 3.9x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Lexington city?","a":"Lexington city's effective property tax rate is about 0.81% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.81% ($2,224 tax ÷ $275,200 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $331,261 median home is roughly $223/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Lexington city, VA was $331,261 as of April 2026, up 3.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Lexington city, VA was $1,057/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Lexington city, VA has a price-to-rent ratio of 26.1 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=lexington-va","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=lexington-va"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:47:41.996Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":331261,"countyFmr":1057,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}