{"area":{"county":"Lexington County","state":"SC","stateName":"South Carolina","slug":"lexington-sc","metro":"Columbia, SC HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":193775},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":200011},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":208705},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":218771},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":226281},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":234500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":239009},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":241482},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":247507},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":249746},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":254874},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":258455},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":257882},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":265196},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":267405},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":272917},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":275534},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":273159},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":281943},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":279492},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":281136}],"latest":281136,"yoy":2.033142915211916,"fiveYr":45.083731131466905,"sinceStart":272.8495265377576,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1226}],"latest":1226,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":77408,"population":304887,"povertyRate":11.108867697827678,"medianHomeValue":234500,"medianGrossRent":1178,"medianPropertyTax":1151},"hud":{"county":"Lexington County","year":"2027","perUnit":1226,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"South Carolina","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":40077,"ratePer100k":359.7399337985887},"propertyCrime":{"total":176665,"ratePer100k":1585.7837513917627},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":19.1,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 19.1× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":7.727893716768763,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":281136,"monthlyRent":1226,"grossRent":1226,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"SC","down":56227.200000000004,"loan":224908.8,"mortgagePI":1458.754195814415,"monthlyTax":115.03148,"taxRatePct":0.491,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.49% ($1,151 tax ÷ $234,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":168.6816,"insuranceRatePct":0.72,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (SC avg 0.72%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":61.300000000000004,"egi":1164.7,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":122.60000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":61.300000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":61.300000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":528.91308,"noi":635.78692,"totalExpenses":1987.667275814415,"cashFlow":-822.967275814415,"annualCf":-9875.607309772979,"cocReturn":-17.563754392487937,"capRate":2.713790848557282},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-914.917275814415,"delta":-92,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-859.7472758144149,"delta":-37,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-865.1376758144149,"delta":-42,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1053.8777839716859,"delta":-231,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −8.6% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2011-01-01 → 2012-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-901.9532767070898,"delta":-79,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1053.8777839716859,"baselineCashFlow":-822.967275814415,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.727893716768763,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":112730.14360435626,"totalCashOutlay":234736.1695856355,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (SC avg 0.72%/yr)","homeValueAfter":473384.0729687012,"equityBuilt":269195.0561949486,"netCostOfBuying":21768.313390686904,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":90961.83021366935},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.63187267465895,"price":281136,"medianIncome":77408,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.491,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.49% ($1,151 tax ÷ $234,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":281136,"secondary":234500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1226,"secondary":1178,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.04,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":234500,"high":281136}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.04,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1178,"high":1226}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.7%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":234500,"high":281136}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.04,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1178,"high":1226}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Lexington County, SC is a moderate market — a 19.1x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Lexington County, SC a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Lexington County's 19.1x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Lexington County?","a":"The typical home value in Lexington County is about $281,136 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 2.0% year-over-year, and up 45.1% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Lexington County?","a":"The typical rent in Lexington County is about $1,226/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Lexington County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Lexington County — roughly $90,962 ahead of renting, with about $269,195 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Lexington County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Lexington County's median home value is 3.6x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Lexington County?","a":"Lexington County's effective property tax rate is about 0.49% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.49% ($1,151 tax ÷ $234,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $281,136 median home is roughly $115/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Lexington County, SC was $281,136 as of April 2026, up 2.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Lexington County, SC was $1,226/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Lexington County, SC has a price-to-rent ratio of 19.1 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=lexington-sc","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=lexington-sc"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T09:32:50.706Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Columbia, SC HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Columbia, SC HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":281136,"countyFmr":1226,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Columbia, SC HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"SC","stateName":"South Carolina","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}