{"area":{"county":"Lewis County","state":"TN","stateName":"Tennessee","slug":"lewis-tn","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":140232},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":148623},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":156695},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":165106},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":171991},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":173400},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":172821},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":175591},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":177122},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":180038},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":183666},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":185209},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":186651},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":189316},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":191875},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":190531},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":192454},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":192256},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":192645},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":194690},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":194147}],"latest":194147,"yoy":0.8796907312916333,"fiveYr":38.447002110787835,"sinceStart":379.39898266581065,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":995}],"latest":995,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":56285,"population":12992,"povertyRate":16.748385088333723,"medianHomeValue":173400,"medianGrossRent":708,"medianPropertyTax":824},"hud":{"county":"Lewis County","year":"2027","perUnit":995,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Tennessee","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":67245,"ratePer100k":459.6329552830346},"propertyCrime":{"total":217854,"ratePer100k":1489.0754381772658},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":16.3,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 16.3× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.723627877764149,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":194147,"monthlyRent":995,"grossRent":995,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"TN","down":38829.4,"loan":155317.6,"mortgagePI":1007.3869972354349,"monthlyTax":76.84985416666667,"taxRatePct":0.475,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.47% ($824 tax ÷ $173,400 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":97.07350000000001,"insuranceRatePct":0.6,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TN avg 0.6%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":49.75,"egi":945.25,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":99.5,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":49.75,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":49.75,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":372.9233541666667,"noi":572.3266458333333,"totalExpenses":1380.3103514021016,"cashFlow":-435.0603514021017,"annualCf":-5220.72421682522,"cocReturn":-13.445286862081874,"capRate":3.5374843546384955},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-509.68535140210156,"delta":-75,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-464.9103514021016,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-459.32872640210155,"delta":-24,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-594.5226131800657,"delta":-159,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −4.7% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-469.91650811601755,"delta":-35,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-594.5226131800657,"baselineCashFlow":-435.0603514021017,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.723627877764149,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":91489.79843909829,"totalCashOutlay":158936.27693981302,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TN avg 0.6%/yr)","homeValueAfter":306164.43711067387,"equityBuilt":165155.5124636215,"netCostOfBuying":32610.16447619151,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":58879.63396290678},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.4493559562938616,"price":194147,"medianIncome":56285,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.475,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.47% ($824 tax ÷ $173,400 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":194147,"secondary":173400,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.12,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":995,"secondary":708,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.41,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":173400,"high":194147}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.41,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":708,"high":995}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.7%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":173400,"high":194147}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.41,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":708,"high":995}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Lewis County, TN is a moderate market — a 16.3x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Lewis County, TN a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Lewis County's 16.3x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Lewis County?","a":"The typical home value in Lewis County is about $194,147 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 0.9% year-over-year, and up 38.4% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Lewis County?","a":"The typical rent in Lewis County is about $995/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Lewis County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Lewis County — roughly $58,880 ahead of renting, with about $165,156 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Lewis County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Lewis County's median home value is 3.4x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Lewis County?","a":"Lewis County's effective property tax rate is about 0.47% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.47% ($824 tax ÷ $173,400 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $194,147 median home is roughly $77/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Lewis County, TN was $194,147 as of April 2026, up 0.9% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Lewis County, TN was $995/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Lewis County, TN has a price-to-rent ratio of 16.3 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=lewis-tn","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=lewis-tn"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T09:41:10.025Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":194147,"countyFmr":995,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"TN","stateName":"Tennessee","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}