{"area":{"county":"Lewis County","state":"ID","stateName":"Idaho","slug":"lewis-id","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":196456},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":208827},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":216354},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":225371},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":231960},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":225300},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":221688},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":220784},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":223563},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":225517},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":226443},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":229678},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":226443},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":234179},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":239094},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":236084},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":236308},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":237933},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":236954},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":243076},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":244850}],"latest":244850,"yoy":3.6147739390964335,"fiveYr":24.633505721382907,"sinceStart":555.5029047198351,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1014}],"latest":1014,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":51615,"population":3682,"povertyRate":15.313098167897182,"medianHomeValue":225300,"medianGrossRent":737,"medianPropertyTax":1341},"hud":{"county":"Lewis County","year":"2027","perUnit":1014,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Idaho","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":8161,"ratePer100k":201.03629393619752},"propertyCrime":{"total":22578,"ratePer100k":556.1815273240371},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":20.1,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":4.503198005293463,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":244850,"monthlyRent":1014,"grossRent":1014,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"ID","down":48970,"loan":195880,"mortgagePI":1270.4739515578208,"monthlyTax":121.40479166666665,"taxRatePct":0.595,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.59% ($1,341 tax ÷ $225,300 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":102.02083333333333,"insuranceRatePct":0.5,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (ID avg 0.5%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":50.7,"egi":963.3,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":101.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":50.7,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":50.7,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":426.2256249999999,"noi":537.074375,"totalExpenses":1696.6995765578208,"cashFlow":-733.3995765578208,"annualCf":-8800.79491869385,"cocReturn":-17.971809104949664,"capRate":2.6321799060649376},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-809.4495765578207,"delta":-76,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-763.8195765578207,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-758.9047848911541,"delta":-26,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-934.5066490149512,"delta":-201,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −13.9% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-838.7818789081796,"delta":-105,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-934.5066490149512,"baselineCashFlow":-733.3995765578208,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":4.503198005293463,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93236.83981632728,"totalCashOutlay":196534.35912276484,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (ID avg 0.5%/yr)","homeValueAfter":333278.40550082416,"equityBuilt":155443.90277953155,"netCostOfBuying":90060.4563432333,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":3176.3834730939852},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.743776034098615,"price":244850,"medianIncome":51615,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.595,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.59% ($1,341 tax ÷ $225,300 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":244850,"secondary":225300,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.09,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1014,"secondary":737,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.38,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.09,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":225300,"high":244850}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.38,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":737,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (229d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (15d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 4.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":229,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":15,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.09,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":225300,"high":244850}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.38,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":737,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Lewis County, ID is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 20.1x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Lewis County, ID a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 20.1x, Lewis County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Lewis County?","a":"The typical home value in Lewis County is about $244,850 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.6% year-over-year, and up 24.6% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Lewis County?","a":"The typical rent in Lewis County is about $1,014/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Lewis County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Lewis County — roughly $3,176 ahead of renting, with about $155,444 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Lewis County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Lewis County's median home value is 4.7x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Lewis County?","a":"Lewis County's effective property tax rate is about 0.59% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.59% ($1,341 tax ÷ $225,300 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $244,850 median home is roughly $121/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Lewis County, ID was $244,850 as of April 2026, up 3.6% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Lewis County, ID was $1,014/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Lewis County, ID has a price-to-rent ratio of 20.1 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=lewis-id","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=lewis-id"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T12:11:10.437Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":244850,"countyFmr":1014,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"ID","stateName":"Idaho","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}