{"area":{"county":"Leelanau County","state":"MI","stateName":"Michigan","slug":"leelanau-mi","metro":"Leelanau County, MI HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":358468},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":382132},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":397840},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":415170},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":436683},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":458400},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":456561},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":480874},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":483867},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":494947},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":492760},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":493770},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":526039},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":522049},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":525726},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":545400},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":553272},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":558404},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":563860},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":558236},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":571696}],"latest":571696,"yoy":3.3300076635000506,"fiveYr":59.48313378042113,"sinceStart":715.5202419331831,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1500}],"latest":1500,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":99422,"population":22734,"povertyRate":6.5273340433084845,"medianHomeValue":458400,"medianGrossRent":1228,"medianPropertyTax":3118},"hud":{"county":"Leelanau County","year":"2027","perUnit":1500,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Michigan","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":78425,"ratePer100k":386.69354118980215},"propertyCrime":{"total":232349,"ratePer100k":1145.6532687524302},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":31.8,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":9.786389523707584,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":571696,"monthlyRent":1500,"grossRent":1500,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MI","down":114339.20000000001,"loan":457356.8,"mortgagePI":2966.4074993253007,"monthlyTax":323.9610666666667,"taxRatePct":0.68,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.68% ($3,118 tax ÷ $458,400 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":219.15013333333332,"insuranceRatePct":0.46,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MI avg 0.46%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":75,"egi":1425,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":150,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":75,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":75,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":843.1112,"noi":581.8888,"totalExpenses":3809.518699325301,"cashFlow":-2384.518699325301,"annualCf":-28614.224391903612,"cocReturn":-25.025734299263604,"capRate":1.2213948672021493},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2497.018699325301,"delta":-112,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2429.518699325301,"delta":-45,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2439.306232658634,"delta":-55,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-2854.080099755979,"delta":-470,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1985-04-01) (home values −7.9% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2009-04-01 → 2010-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-2473.9186545998364,"delta":-89,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-2854.080099755979,"baselineCashFlow":-2384.518699325301,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":9.786389523707584,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":137924.319254922,"totalCashOutlay":516545.62619307206,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MI avg 0.46%/yr)","homeValueAfter":1099017.6678205626,"equityBuilt":683794.9850852063,"netCostOfBuying":-52910.15889213432,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":190834.47814705633},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.750196133652511,"price":571696,"medianIncome":99422,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.68,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.68% ($3,118 tax ÷ $458,400 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":571696,"secondary":458400,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.25,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1500,"secondary":1228,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.25,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":458400,"high":571696}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1228,"high":1500}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 9.8%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.25,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":458400,"high":571696}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1228,"high":1500}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Leelanau County, MI is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 31.8x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Leelanau County, MI a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 31.8x, Leelanau County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Leelanau County?","a":"The typical home value in Leelanau County is about $571,696 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 3.3% year-over-year, and up 59.5% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Leelanau County?","a":"The typical rent in Leelanau County is about $1,500/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Leelanau County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Leelanau County — roughly $190,834 ahead of renting, with about $683,795 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Leelanau County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Leelanau County's median home value is 5.8x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Leelanau County?","a":"Leelanau County's effective property tax rate is about 0.68% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.68% ($3,118 tax ÷ $458,400 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $571,696 median home is roughly $324/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Leelanau County, MI was $571,696 as of April 2026, up 3.3% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Leelanau County, MI was $1,500/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Leelanau County, MI has a price-to-rent ratio of 31.8 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=leelanau-mi","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=leelanau-mi"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T08:44:11.772Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Leelanau County, MI HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Leelanau County, MI HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":571696,"countyFmr":1500,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Leelanau County, MI HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"MI","stateName":"Michigan","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}