{"area":{"county":"Lea County","state":"NM","stateName":"New Mexico","slug":"lea-nm","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":156352},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":163579},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":168936},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":175276},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":182975},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":184000},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":185497},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":188106},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":189833},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":195440},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":195292},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":199495},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":201217},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":203052},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":207014},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":208998},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":212068},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":208598},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":208362},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":213078},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":209418}],"latest":209418,"yoy":-1.2495991851670218,"fiveYr":33.94008391322145,"sinceStart":308.5726549086936,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1327}],"latest":1327,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":68015,"population":73733,"povertyRate":18.68795615335142,"medianHomeValue":184000,"medianGrossRent":1101,"medianPropertyTax":879},"hud":{"county":"Lea County","year":"2027","perUnit":1327,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"New Mexico","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":24645,"ratePer100k":578.4516039386816},"propertyCrime":{"total":84484,"ratePer100k":1982.9541613777874},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":13.2,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.019460140637967,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":209418,"monthlyRent":1327,"grossRent":1327,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NM","down":41883.600000000006,"loan":167534.4,"mortgagePI":1086.6249294969807,"monthlyTax":83.41816999999999,"taxRatePct":0.478,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.48% ($879 tax ÷ $184,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":115.17989999999999,"insuranceRatePct":0.66,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NM avg 0.66%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":66.35000000000001,"egi":1260.65,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":132.70000000000002,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":66.35000000000001,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":66.35000000000001,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":463.99807000000004,"noi":796.65193,"totalExpenses":1550.6229994969808,"cashFlow":-289.9729994969807,"annualCf":-3479.6759939637686,"cocReturn":-8.307967782052565,"capRate":4.564948170644357},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-389.4979994969807,"delta":-100,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-329.7829994969809,"delta":-40,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-318.76797449698074,"delta":-29,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-461.9780674970923,"delta":-172,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −7.3% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-362.4050828303143,"delta":-72,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-461.9780674970923,"baselineCashFlow":-289.9729994969807,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.019460140637967,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":122017.047767521,"totalCashOutlay":173438.0834232625,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NM avg 0.66%/yr)","homeValueAfter":315292.12725343864,"equityBuilt":163191.87856694634,"netCostOfBuying":52129.80485631616,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":69887.24291120484},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.078997280011762,"price":209418,"medianIncome":68015,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.478,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.48% ($879 tax ÷ $184,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":209418,"secondary":184000,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1327,"secondary":1101,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.21,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":184000,"high":209418}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1101,"high":1327}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":184000,"high":209418}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.21,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1101,"high":1327}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Lea County, NM leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 13.2 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Lea County, NM a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Lea County's price-to-rent ratio of 13.2 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Lea County?","a":"The typical home value in Lea County is about $209,418 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), down 1.2% year-over-year, and up 33.9% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Lea County?","a":"The typical rent in Lea County is about $1,327/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Lea County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Lea County — roughly $69,887 ahead of renting, with about $163,192 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Lea County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Lea County's median home value is 3.1x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Lea County?","a":"Lea County's effective property tax rate is about 0.48% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.48% ($879 tax ÷ $184,000 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $209,418 median home is roughly $83/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Lea County, NM was $209,418 as of April 2026, down 1.2% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Lea County, NM was $1,327/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Lea County, NM has a price-to-rent ratio of 13.2 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=lea-nm","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=lea-nm"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T20:26:23.219Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":209418,"countyFmr":1327,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"NM","stateName":"New Mexico","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}