{"area":{"county":"Lawrence County","state":"PA","stateName":"Pennsylvania","slug":"lawrence-pa","metro":"Lawrence County, PA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":134613},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":138275},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":141235},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":144730},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":146988},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":147200},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":148243},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":150328},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":152091},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":156553},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":159213},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":159549},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":163499},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":165876},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":167444},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":168703},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":170020},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":169848},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":172052},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":177380},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":174875}],"latest":174875,"yoy":2.8555464063051406,"fiveYr":29.909444110152812,"sinceStart":295.805984337513,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1095}],"latest":1095,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":61931,"population":85024,"povertyRate":11.873676568455442,"medianHomeValue":147200,"medianGrossRent":831,"medianPropertyTax":1967},"hud":{"county":"Lawrence County","year":"2027","perUnit":1095,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Pennsylvania","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":55584,"ratePer100k":212.4973554431918},"propertyCrime":{"total":327305,"ratePer100k":1251.285386502121},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":13.3,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":5.373463886624941,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":174875,"monthlyRent":1095,"grossRent":1095,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"PA","down":34975,"loan":139900,"mortgagePI":907.3887370989337,"monthlyTax":194.69416666666666,"taxRatePct":1.336,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.34% ($1,967 tax ÷ $147,200 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":64.12083333333334,"insuranceRatePct":0.44,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (PA avg 0.44%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":54.75,"egi":1040.25,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":109.5,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":54.75,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":54.75,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":477.815,"noi":562.435,"totalExpenses":1385.2037370989337,"cashFlow":-344.95373709893374,"annualCf":-4139.444845187205,"cocReturn":-11.835439157075639,"capRate":3.8594538956397426},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-427.07873709893363,"delta":-82,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-377.80373709893365,"delta":-33,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-360.9839454322671,"delta":-16,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-488.58697906724365,"delta":-144,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −2.8% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-368.081799225911,"delta":-23,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-488.58697906724365,"baselineCashFlow":-344.95373709893374,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":5.373463886624941,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":100684.75305609308,"totalCashOutlay":152526.87738936034,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (PA avg 0.44%/yr)","homeValueAfter":252258.91523430636,"equityBuilt":125247.24007242761,"netCostOfBuying":62254.63731693273,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":38430.11573916035},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.823707028790105,"price":174875,"medianIncome":61931,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.336,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.34% ($1,967 tax ÷ $147,200 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":174875,"secondary":147200,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.19,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1095,"secondary":831,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.32,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.19,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":147200,"high":174875}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.32,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":831,"high":1095}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 5.4%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.19,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":147200,"high":174875}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.32,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":831,"high":1095}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Lawrence County, PA leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 13.3 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Lawrence County, PA a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Lawrence County's price-to-rent ratio of 13.3 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Lawrence County?","a":"The typical home value in Lawrence County is about $174,875 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 2.9% year-over-year, and up 29.9% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Lawrence County?","a":"The typical rent in Lawrence County is about $1,095/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Lawrence County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Lawrence County — roughly $38,430 ahead of renting, with about $125,247 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Lawrence County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Lawrence County's median home value is 2.8x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Lawrence County?","a":"Lawrence County's effective property tax rate is about 1.34% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.34% ($1,967 tax ÷ $147,200 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $174,875 median home is roughly $195/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Lawrence County, PA was $174,875 as of April 2026, up 2.9% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Lawrence County, PA was $1,095/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Lawrence County, PA has a price-to-rent ratio of 13.3 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=lawrence-pa","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=lawrence-pa"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T11:30:42.525Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Lawrence County, PA HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Lawrence County, PA HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":174875,"countyFmr":1095,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Lawrence County, PA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"PA","stateName":"Pennsylvania","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}