{"area":{"county":"Lauderdale County","state":"AL","stateName":"Alabama","slug":"lauderdale-al","metro":"Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":175270},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":183947},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":188085},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":193166},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":200217},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":200300},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":208443},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":212598},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":213299},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":216428},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":221843},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":228125},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":227266},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":230745},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":234817},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":235000},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":241316},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":246865},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":245162},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":246973},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":253364}],"latest":253364,"yoy":4.99262377960848,"fiveYr":44.55639869914989,"sinceStart":203.66996668025027,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1085}],"latest":1085,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":62649,"population":95830,"povertyRate":12.159044353882312,"medianHomeValue":200300,"medianGrossRent":838,"medianPropertyTax":757},"hud":{"county":"Lauderdale County","year":"2027","perUnit":1085,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Alabama","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":33406,"ratePer100k":321.6390710113135},"propertyCrime":{"total":140403,"ratePer100k":1351.825734514801},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":19.5,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 19.5× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":7.649457670707727,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":253364,"monthlyRent":1085,"grossRent":1085,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"AL","down":50672.8,"loan":202691.2,"mortgagePI":1314.6512651112753,"monthlyTax":79.80966,"taxRatePct":0.378,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.38% ($757 tax ÷ $200,300 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":152.0184,"insuranceRatePct":0.72,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AL avg 0.72%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":54.25,"egi":1030.75,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":108.5,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":54.25,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":54.25,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":448.82806,"noi":581.92194,"totalExpenses":1763.4793251112753,"cashFlow":-732.7293251112753,"annualCf":-8792.751901335305,"cocReturn":-17.352015087651175,"capRate":2.7561387095246364},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-814.1043251112753,"delta":-81,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-765.2793251112753,"delta":-33,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-770.7339251112753,"delta":-38,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-940.8293549500679,"delta":-208,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −9.6% over 6 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1992-07-01 → 1993-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-810.6229532803495,"delta":-78,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-940.8293549500679,"baselineCashFlow":-732.7293251112753,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.649457670707727,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":99765.25759439358,"totalCashOutlay":208742.9450841974,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AL avg 0.72%/yr)","homeValueAfter":424451.26322557137,"equityBuilt":240433.04412213026,"netCostOfBuying":18982.700962067116,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":80782.55663232646},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.0441826685182525,"price":253364,"medianIncome":62649,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.378,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.38% ($757 tax ÷ $200,300 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":253364,"secondary":200300,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.26,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1085,"secondary":838,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.29,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.26,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":200300,"high":253364}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.29,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":838,"high":1085}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.26,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":200300,"high":253364}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.29,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":838,"high":1085}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Lauderdale County, AL is a moderate market — a 19.5x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Lauderdale County, AL a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Lauderdale County's 19.5x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Lauderdale County?","a":"The typical home value in Lauderdale County is about $253,364 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 5.0% year-over-year, and up 44.6% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Lauderdale County?","a":"The typical rent in Lauderdale County is about $1,085/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Lauderdale County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Lauderdale County — roughly $80,783 ahead of renting, with about $240,433 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Lauderdale County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Lauderdale County's median home value is 4.0x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Lauderdale County?","a":"Lauderdale County's effective property tax rate is about 0.38% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.38% ($757 tax ÷ $200,300 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $253,364 median home is roughly $80/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Lauderdale County, AL was $253,364 as of April 2026, up 5.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Lauderdale County, AL was $1,085/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Lauderdale County, AL has a price-to-rent ratio of 19.5 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=lauderdale-al","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=lauderdale-al"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T09:55:47.262Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":253364,"countyFmr":1085,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"AL","stateName":"Alabama","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}