{"area":{"county":"Larimer County","state":"CO","stateName":"Colorado","slug":"larimer-co","metro":"Fort Collins-Loveland, CO MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":463271},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":490565},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":505186},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":528599},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":566312},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":569100},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":560122},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":570274},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":576130},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":572889},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":569754},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":577665},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":595167},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":592606},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":587203},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":591565},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":597822},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":600530},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":600823},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":600210},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":599156}],"latest":599156,"yoy":0.22314334367085856,"fiveYr":29.331643897416416,"sinceStart":1133.541958329902,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1759}],"latest":1759,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":93765,"population":367368,"povertyRate":11.19598501939753,"medianHomeValue":569100,"medianGrossRent":1716,"medianPropertyTax":2832},"hud":{"county":"Larimer County","year":"2027","perUnit":1759,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Colorado","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":46628,"ratePer100k":387.7549017797907},"propertyCrime":{"total":238108,"ratePer100k":1980.0880190654198},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":28.4,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":5.279549596530697,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":599156,"monthlyRent":1759,"grossRent":1759,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"CO","down":119831.20000000001,"loan":479324.8,"mortgagePI":3108.8915291794065,"monthlyTax":248.64973999999998,"taxRatePct":0.498,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.50% ($2,832 tax ÷ $569,100 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":369.47953333333334,"insuranceRatePct":0.74,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CO avg 0.74%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":87.95,"egi":1671.05,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":175.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":87.95,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":87.95,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":969.9292733333334,"noi":701.1207266666665,"totalExpenses":4078.8208025127396,"cashFlow":-2407.77080251274,"annualCf":-28893.24963015288,"cocReturn":-24.11162504435646,"capRate":1.404216718183578},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2539.6958025127396,"delta":-132,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2460.54080251274,"delta":-53,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2500.140685846073,"delta":-92,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-2899.88642066722,"delta":-492,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1977-07-01) (home values −10.5% over 3 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1983-01-01 → 1983-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-2546.897433862726,"delta":-139,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-2899.88642066722,"baselineCashFlow":-2407.77080251274,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":5.279549596530697,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":161739.25171293854,"totalCashOutlay":493646.48517744825,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CO avg 0.74%/yr)","homeValueAfter":858910.7547941084,"equityBuilt":423743.87992182455,"netCostOfBuying":189733.8052556237,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":27994.55354268517},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":6.389974937343358,"price":599156,"medianIncome":93765,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.498,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.50% ($2,832 tax ÷ $569,100 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":599156,"secondary":569100,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.05,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1759,"secondary":1716,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.03,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":569100,"high":599156}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.03,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1716,"high":1759}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 5.3%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":569100,"high":599156}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.03,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1716,"high":1759}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Larimer County, CO is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 28.4x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Larimer County, CO a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 28.4x, Larimer County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Larimer County?","a":"The typical home value in Larimer County is about $599,156 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 0.2% year-over-year, and up 29.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Larimer County?","a":"The typical rent in Larimer County is about $1,759/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Larimer County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Larimer County by about $27,995 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Larimer County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Larimer County's median home value is 6.4x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Larimer County?","a":"Larimer County's effective property tax rate is about 0.50% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.50% ($2,832 tax ÷ $569,100 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $599,156 median home is roughly $249/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Larimer County, CO was $599,156 as of April 2026, up 0.2% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Larimer County, CO was $1,759/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Larimer County, CO has a price-to-rent ratio of 28.4 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=larimer-co","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=larimer-co"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T06:04:24.375Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Fort Collins-Loveland, CO MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Fort Collins-Loveland, CO MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":599156,"countyFmr":1759,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Fort Collins-Loveland, CO MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"CO","stateName":"Colorado","cityPages":[{"city":"Fort Collins","state":"CO"}],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}