{"area":{"county":"Lancaster County","state":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","slug":"lancaster-va","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":286694},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":296850},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":305583},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":318240},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":325722},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":327000},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":331188},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":336308},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":341783},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":349932},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":355014},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":357916},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":366941},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":371339},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":375838},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":382864},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":381787},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":385775},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":389918},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":392217},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":393614}],"latest":393614,"yoy":3.0978006060971173,"fiveYr":37.294118467774,"sinceStart":331.3483540086793,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1091}],"latest":1091,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":69713,"population":10936,"povertyRate":10.268902838939379,"medianHomeValue":327000,"medianGrossRent":1033,"medianPropertyTax":1558},"hud":{"county":"Lancaster County","year":"2027","perUnit":1091,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Virginia","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":35217,"ratePer100k":198.2915295953078},"propertyCrime":{"total":230747,"ratePer100k":1299.2354709239428},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":30.1,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":6.545265465418915,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":393614,"monthlyRent":1091,"grossRent":1091,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"VA","down":78722.8,"loan":314891.2,"mortgagePI":2042.3783294608133,"monthlyTax":156.1335533333333,"taxRatePct":0.476,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.48% ($1,558 tax ÷ $327,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":183.68653333333336,"insuranceRatePct":0.56,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":54.550000000000004,"egi":1036.45,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":109.10000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":54.550000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":54.550000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":558.0200866666667,"noi":478.4299133333334,"totalExpenses":2600.3984161274802,"cashFlow":-1563.94841612748,"annualCf":-18767.38099352976,"cocReturn":-23.839829113712625,"capRate":1.458575904312347},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1645.7734161274802,"delta":-82,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1596.67841612748,"delta":-33,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1609.8700494608133,"delta":-46,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1887.242511361872,"delta":-323,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −11.4% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1657.221202435091,"delta":-93,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1887.242511361872,"baselineCashFlow":-1563.94841612748,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.545265465418915,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":100316.95487141327,"totalCashOutlay":329227.536955706,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","homeValueAfter":613493.0223660795,"equityBuilt":327611.2582078647,"netCostOfBuying":80339.0787478413,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":19977.876123571972},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.646206589875633,"price":393614,"medianIncome":69713,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.476,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.48% ($1,558 tax ÷ $327,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":393614,"secondary":327000,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1091,"secondary":1033,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.06,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":327000,"high":393614}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.06,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1033,"high":1091}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":327000,"high":393614}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.06,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1033,"high":1091}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Lancaster County, VA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 30.1x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Lancaster County, VA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 30.1x, Lancaster County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Lancaster County?","a":"The typical home value in Lancaster County is about $393,614 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.1% year-over-year, and up 37.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Lancaster County?","a":"The typical rent in Lancaster County is about $1,091/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Lancaster County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Lancaster County — roughly $19,978 ahead of renting, with about $327,611 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Lancaster County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Lancaster County's median home value is 5.6x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Lancaster County?","a":"Lancaster County's effective property tax rate is about 0.48% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.48% ($1,558 tax ÷ $327,000 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $393,614 median home is roughly $156/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Lancaster County, VA was $393,614 as of April 2026, up 3.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Lancaster County, VA was $1,091/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Lancaster County, VA has a price-to-rent ratio of 30.1 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=lancaster-va","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=lancaster-va"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T11:07:13.402Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":393614,"countyFmr":1091,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}