{"area":{"county":"Lake County","state":"MI","stateName":"Michigan","slug":"lake-mi","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":118199},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":122583},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":126580},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":131528},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":134055},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":133900},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":134610},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":136798},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":140005},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":143805},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":146407},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":147923},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":151088},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":153510},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":153677},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":158103},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":158058},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":159619},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":162505},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":163424},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":164062}],"latest":164062,"yoy":3.7986055751686094,"fiveYr":38.80151270315316,"sinceStart":292.87818194880145,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1069}],"latest":1069,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":50805,"population":12563,"povertyRate":20.519098922624877,"medianHomeValue":133900,"medianGrossRent":875,"medianPropertyTax":1456},"hud":{"county":"Lake County","year":"2027","perUnit":1069,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Michigan","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":78425,"ratePer100k":386.69354118980215},"propertyCrime":{"total":232349,"ratePer100k":1145.6532687524302},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":12.8,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.77823525718364,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":164062,"monthlyRent":1069,"grossRent":1069,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MI","down":32812.4,"loan":131249.6,"mortgagePI":851.2824073533968,"monthlyTax":148.61282833333334,"taxRatePct":1.087,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.09% ($1,456 tax ÷ $133,900 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":62.890433333333334,"insuranceRatePct":0.46,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MI avg 0.46%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":53.45,"egi":1015.55,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":106.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":53.45,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":53.45,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":425.3032616666667,"noi":590.2467383333333,"totalExpenses":1276.5856690200635,"cashFlow":-261.03566902006355,"annualCf":-3132.4280282407626,"cocReturn":-9.546476418185694,"capRate":4.317246443417732},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-341.2106690200635,"delta":-80,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-293.1056690200635,"delta":-32,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-276.7582773533968,"delta":-16,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-395.7876744170891,"delta":-135,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −12.7% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-362.9074196887361,"delta":-102,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-395.7876744170891,"baselineCashFlow":-261.03566902006355,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.77823525718364,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":98294.0648556744,"totalCashOutlay":144370.0691461401,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MI avg 0.46%/yr)","homeValueAfter":259649.31067562837,"equityBuilt":140491.1151050313,"netCostOfBuying":36691.3540411088,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":61602.710814565595},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.22924908965653,"price":164062,"medianIncome":50805,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.087,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.09% ($1,456 tax ÷ $133,900 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":164062,"secondary":133900,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.23,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1069,"secondary":875,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":133900,"high":164062}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":875,"high":1069}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.8%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":133900,"high":164062}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":875,"high":1069}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Lake County, MI leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 12.8 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Lake County, MI a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Lake County's price-to-rent ratio of 12.8 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Lake County?","a":"The typical home value in Lake County is about $164,062 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.8% year-over-year, and up 38.8% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Lake County?","a":"The typical rent in Lake County is about $1,069/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Lake County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Lake County — roughly $61,603 ahead of renting, with about $140,491 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Lake County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Lake County's median home value is 3.2x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Lake County?","a":"Lake County's effective property tax rate is about 1.09% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.09% ($1,456 tax ÷ $133,900 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $164,062 median home is roughly $149/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Lake County, MI was $164,062 as of April 2026, up 3.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Lake County, MI was $1,069/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Lake County, MI has a price-to-rent ratio of 12.8 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=lake-mi","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=lake-mi"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:39:15.305Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":164062,"countyFmr":1069,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"MI","stateName":"Michigan","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}