{"area":{"county":"Lafayette County","state":"MO","stateName":"Missouri","slug":"lafayette-mo","metro":"Kansas City, MO-KS HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":191052},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":196153},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":201840},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":213613},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":217285},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":216500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":219417},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":221877},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":228858},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":235453},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":237005},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":240320},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":241972},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":244596},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":247577},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":248438},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":251337},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":253715},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":255952},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":259220},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":258658}],"latest":258658,"yoy":2.91282222673144,"fiveYr":35.38617758516006,"sinceStart":341.6295309805529,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1546}],"latest":1546,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":80612,"population":33115,"povertyRate":9.286436471705628,"medianHomeValue":216500,"medianGrossRent":928,"medianPropertyTax":1581},"hud":{"county":"Lafayette County","year":"2027","perUnit":1546,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Missouri","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":50057,"ratePer100k":399.1441886752674},"propertyCrime":{"total":193566,"ratePer100k":1543.455341413125},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":13.9,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.24743841149189,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":258658,"monthlyRent":1546,"grossRent":1546,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MO","down":51731.600000000006,"loan":206926.4,"mortgagePI":1342.120691697132,"monthlyTax":157.35028333333335,"taxRatePct":0.73,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.73% ($1,581 tax ÷ $216,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":129.329,"insuranceRatePct":0.6,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MO avg 0.6%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":77.30000000000001,"egi":1468.7,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":154.60000000000002,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":77.30000000000001,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":77.30000000000001,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":595.8792833333334,"noi":872.8207166666666,"totalExpenses":1937.9999750304655,"cashFlow":-469.2999750304655,"annualCf":-5631.599700365586,"cocReturn":-10.886188906520552,"capRate":4.04930394575076},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-585.2499750304653,"delta":-116,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-515.6799750304656,"delta":-46,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-501.6322250304654,"delta":-32,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-681.7482214981658,"delta":-212,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −9.3% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-577.7047968473353,"delta":-108,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-681.7482214981658,"baselineCashFlow":-469.2999750304655,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.24743841149189,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":142153.9983787396,"totalCashOutlay":220034.3179191506,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MO avg 0.6%/yr)","homeValueAfter":395325.830812827,"equityBuilt":207462.58063972482,"netCostOfBuying":64303.33727942579,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":77850.66109931382},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.2086786086438743,"price":258658,"medianIncome":80612,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.73,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.73% ($1,581 tax ÷ $216,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":258658,"secondary":216500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.19,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1546,"secondary":928,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.67,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.19,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":216500,"high":258658}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.67,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":928,"high":1546}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.2%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.19,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":216500,"high":258658}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.67,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":928,"high":1546}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Lafayette County, MO leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 13.9 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Lafayette County, MO a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Lafayette County's price-to-rent ratio of 13.9 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Lafayette County?","a":"The typical home value in Lafayette County is about $258,658 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 2.9% year-over-year, and up 35.4% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Lafayette County?","a":"The typical rent in Lafayette County is about $1,546/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Lafayette County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Lafayette County — roughly $77,851 ahead of renting, with about $207,463 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Lafayette County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Lafayette County's median home value is 3.2x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Lafayette County?","a":"Lafayette County's effective property tax rate is about 0.73% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.73% ($1,581 tax ÷ $216,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $258,658 median home is roughly $157/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Lafayette County, MO was $258,658 as of April 2026, up 2.9% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Lafayette County, MO was $1,546/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Lafayette County, MO has a price-to-rent ratio of 13.9 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=lafayette-mo","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=lafayette-mo"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T21:43:07.834Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Kansas City, MO-KS HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Kansas City, MO-KS HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":258658,"countyFmr":1546,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Kansas City, MO-KS HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"MO","stateName":"Missouri","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}