{"area":{"county":"King William County","state":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","slug":"king-william-va","metro":"Richmond, VA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":277188},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":282478},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":292924},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":307216},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":315182},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":315700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":321560},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":326553},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":331207},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":342459},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":348820},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":349312},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":359011},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":362289},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":359214},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":368522},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":372921},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":374594},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":379120},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":380980},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":379732}],"latest":379732,"yoy":1.826392184939974,"fiveYr":36.99438648137726,"sinceStart":347.14859343169695,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1651}],"latest":1651,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":86056,"population":18593,"povertyRate":5.856562922868742,"medianHomeValue":315700,"medianGrossRent":1166,"medianPropertyTax":1729},"hud":{"county":"King William County","year":"2027","perUnit":1651,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Virginia","period":"11-2023 to 10-2025","window":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"violentCrime":{"total":38972,"ratePer100k":219.43429285255235},"propertyCrime":{"total":268501,"ratePer100k":1511.8117383045048},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"priceToRentRatio":19.2,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 19.2× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.498697814077925,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":379732,"monthlyRent":1651,"grossRent":1651,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"VA","down":75946.40000000001,"loan":303785.6,"mortgagePI":1970.347619248333,"monthlyTax":173.41094666666666,"taxRatePct":0.548,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.55% ($1,729 tax ÷ $315,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":177.20826666666667,"insuranceRatePct":0.56,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":82.55000000000001,"egi":1568.45,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":165.10000000000002,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":82.55000000000001,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":82.55000000000001,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":680.8192133333332,"noi":887.6307866666668,"totalExpenses":2651.1668325816663,"cashFlow":-1082.7168325816663,"annualCf":-12992.601990979994,"cocReturn":-17.107594291473976,"capRate":2.805022868760074},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1206.5418325816663,"delta":-124,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1132.2468325816662,"delta":-50,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1127.0188992483331,"delta":-44,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1394.6089740490586,"delta":-312,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −9.7% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1202.2786926623,"delta":-120,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1394.6089740490586,"baselineCashFlow":-1082.7168325816663,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.498697814077925,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":151808.70072658415,"totalCashOutlay":317508.1282746244,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","homeValueAfter":590047.9145292918,"equityBuilt":314248.6440070873,"netCostOfBuying":79205.88426753716,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":72602.816459047},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.4126150413684115,"price":379732,"medianIncome":86056,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.548,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.55% ($1,729 tax ÷ $315,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":379732,"secondary":315700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1651,"secondary":1166,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.42,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":315700,"high":379732}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.42,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1166,"high":1651}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":315700,"high":379732}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.42,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1166,"high":1651}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"King William County, VA is a moderate market — a 19.2x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is King William County, VA a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. King William County's 19.2x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in King William County?","a":"The typical home value in King William County is about $379,732 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 1.8% year-over-year, and up 37.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in King William County?","a":"The typical rent in King William County is about $1,651/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in King William County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in King William County — roughly $72,603 ahead of renting, with about $314,249 in equity built."},{"q":"Is King William County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"King William County's median home value is 4.4x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in King William County?","a":"King William County's effective property tax rate is about 0.55% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.55% ($1,729 tax ÷ $315,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $379,732 median home is roughly $173/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in King William County, VA was $379,732 as of April 2026, up 1.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in King William County, VA was $1,651/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","King William County, VA has a price-to-rent ratio of 19.2 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=king-william-va","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=king-william-va"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:50:52.239Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Richmond, VA HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Richmond, VA HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":379732,"countyFmr":1651,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Richmond, VA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}