{"area":{"county":"King County","state":"WA","stateName":"Washington","slug":"king-wa","metro":"Seattle-Bellevue, WA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":794063},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":815815},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":857942},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":903347},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":913802},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":859900},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":865672},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":835682},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":853084},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":880840},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":882914},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":901258},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":901911},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":919298},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":926781},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":925926},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":925085},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":918602},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":920604},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":914687},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":902535}],"latest":902535,"yoy":-2.4376138408902968,"fiveYr":13.66037707335564,"sinceStart":522.3692558062559,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":2549}],"latest":2549,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":124746,"population":2287171,"povertyRate":8.592610323206937,"medianHomeValue":859900,"medianGrossRent":2092,"medianPropertyTax":7114},"hud":{"county":"King County","year":"2027","perUnit":2549,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Washington","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":42104,"ratePer100k":263.11645265228685},"propertyCrime":{"total":287985,"ratePer100k":1799.676791209121},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":29.5,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":2.5943256473796694,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":902535,"monthlyRent":2549,"grossRent":2549,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"WA","down":180507,"loan":722028,"mortgagePI":4683.059864689556,"monthlyTax":621.9970374999999,"taxRatePct":0.827,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.83% ($7,114 tax ÷ $859,900 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":315.88725,"insuranceRatePct":0.42,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WA avg 0.42%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":127.45,"egi":2421.55,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":254.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":127.45,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":127.45,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":1447.6842875,"noi":973.8657125000002,"totalExpenses":6130.744152189556,"cashFlow":-3709.194152189556,"annualCf":-44510.32982627467,"cocReturn":-24.658506222071537,"capRate":1.2948404826405628},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-3900.3691521895557,"delta":-191,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-3785.6641521895563,"delta":-76,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-3788.165964689556,"delta":-79,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-4450.489523396811,"delta":-741,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −13.5% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-04-01 → 2009-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-3967.461197280357,"delta":-258,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-4450.489523396811,"baselineCashFlow":-3709.194152189556,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":2.5943256473796694,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":234379.39318719748,"totalCashOutlay":728270.8378781949,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WA avg 0.42%/yr)","homeValueAfter":1079760.5127608534,"equityBuilt":424249.5349639921,"netCostOfBuying":484528.3029142028,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":250148.90972700532},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":7.23498148237218,"price":902535,"medianIncome":124746,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.827,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.83% ($7,114 tax ÷ $859,900 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":902535,"secondary":859900,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.05,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":2549,"secondary":2092,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":859900,"high":902535}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":2092,"high":2549}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 2.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":859900,"high":902535}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":2092,"high":2549}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"King County, WA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 29.5x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is King County, WA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 29.5x, King County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in King County?","a":"The typical home value in King County is about $902,535 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), down 2.4% year-over-year, and up 13.7% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in King County?","a":"The typical rent in King County is about $2,549/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in King County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in King County by about $250,149 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is King County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"King County's median home value is 7.2x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in King County?","a":"King County's effective property tax rate is about 0.83% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.83% ($7,114 tax ÷ $859,900 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $902,535 median home is roughly $622/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in King County, WA was $902,535 as of April 2026, down 2.4% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in King County, WA was $2,549/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","King County, WA has a price-to-rent ratio of 29.5 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=king-wa","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=king-wa"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:03:55.230Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Seattle-Bellevue, WA HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Seattle-Bellevue, WA HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":902535,"countyFmr":2549,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Seattle-Bellevue, WA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"WA","stateName":"Washington","cityPages":[{"city":"Seattle","state":"WA"}],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}