{"area":{"county":"Jones County","state":"IA","stateName":"Iowa","slug":"jones-ia","metro":"Jones County, IA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":159615},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":166791},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":168281},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":170190},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":183929},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":184800},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":179015},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":181962},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":189991},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":193574},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":193734},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":195768},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":199167},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":200440},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":199419},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":197903},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":205665},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":205941},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":207766},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":207105},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":215645}],"latest":215645,"yoy":4.852551479347483,"fiveYr":35.10321711618582,"sinceStart":354.2476776272829,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":927}],"latest":927,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":73531,"population":20896,"povertyRate":12.000816035089509,"medianHomeValue":184800,"medianGrossRent":784,"medianPropertyTax":2450},"hud":{"county":"Jones County","year":"2027","perUnit":927,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Iowa","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":13982,"ratePer100k":215.67255532027266},"propertyCrime":{"total":68730,"ratePer100k":1060.161259273519},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":19.4,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 19.4× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.202983195431622,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":215645,"monthlyRent":927,"grossRent":927,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"IA","down":43129,"loan":172516,"mortgagePI":1118.935492275623,"monthlyTax":238.28772500000002,"taxRatePct":1.326,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.33% ($2,450 tax ÷ $184,800 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":104.22841666666666,"insuranceRatePct":0.58,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (IA avg 0.58%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":46.35,"egi":880.65,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":92.7,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":46.35,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":46.35,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":527.9161416666667,"noi":352.7338583333333,"totalExpenses":1646.8516339422895,"cashFlow":-766.2016339422896,"annualCf":-9194.419607307475,"cocReturn":-21.318415931988856,"capRate":1.9628585406570982},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-835.7266339422896,"delta":-70,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-794.0116339422896,"delta":-28,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-792.2587381089562,"delta":-26,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-943.32123631116,"delta":-177,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1979-01-01) (home values −17.3% over 6 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1980-04-01 → 1980-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-886.2490284832325,"delta":-120,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-943.32123631116,"baselineCashFlow":-766.2016339422896,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.202983195431622,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":85237.22929954181,"totalCashOutlay":193216.56164498234,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (IA avg 0.58%/yr)","homeValueAfter":328621.826648405,"equityBuilt":171998.9091914596,"netCostOfBuying":64346.65245352275,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":20890.57684601906},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.9327086534930844,"price":215645,"medianIncome":73531,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.326,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.33% ($2,450 tax ÷ $184,800 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":215645,"secondary":184800,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.17,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":927,"secondary":784,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.18,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":184800,"high":215645}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.18,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":784,"high":927}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.2%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":184800,"high":215645}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.18,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":784,"high":927}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Jones County, IA is a moderate market — a 19.4x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Jones County, IA a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Jones County's 19.4x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Jones County?","a":"The typical home value in Jones County is about $215,645 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 4.9% year-over-year, and up 35.1% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Jones County?","a":"The typical rent in Jones County is about $927/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Jones County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Jones County — roughly $20,891 ahead of renting, with about $171,999 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Jones County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Jones County's median home value is 2.9x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Jones County?","a":"Jones County's effective property tax rate is about 1.33% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.33% ($2,450 tax ÷ $184,800 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $215,645 median home is roughly $238/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Jones County, IA was $215,645 as of April 2026, up 4.9% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Jones County, IA was $927/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Jones County, IA has a price-to-rent ratio of 19.4 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=jones-ia","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=jones-ia"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T05:12:27.318Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Jones County, IA HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Jones County, IA HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":215645,"countyFmr":927,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Jones County, IA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"IA","stateName":"Iowa","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}