{"area":{"county":"Johnston County","state":"OK","stateName":"Oklahoma","slug":"johnston-ok","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":100220},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":105119},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":108550},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":111857},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":115648},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":116500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":118948},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":119706},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":121856},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":123785},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":123903},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":125693},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":126870},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":127531},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":129093},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":131575},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":129848},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":130537},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":133397},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":131423},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":132427}],"latest":132427,"yoy":1.986168443102705,"fiveYr":32.13630013969267,"sinceStart":282.47169593345654,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":916}],"latest":916,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":52688,"population":10278,"povertyRate":22.89572545436085,"medianHomeValue":116500,"medianGrossRent":762,"medianPropertyTax":650},"hud":{"county":"Johnston County","year":"2027","perUnit":916,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Oklahoma","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":30862,"ratePer100k":374.24016949580044},"propertyCrime":{"total":138287,"ratePer100k":1676.9020257619648},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":12,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":5.7323152820061285,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":132427,"monthlyRent":916,"grossRent":916,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"OK","down":26485.4,"loan":105941.6,"mortgagePI":687.1352010739128,"monthlyTax":61.578555,"taxRatePct":0.558,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.56% ($650 tax ÷ $116,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":93.80245833333333,"insuranceRatePct":0.85,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (OK avg 0.85%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":45.800000000000004,"egi":870.2,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":91.60000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":45.800000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":45.800000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":338.5810133333334,"noi":531.6189866666666,"totalExpenses":1025.716214407246,"cashFlow":-155.51621440724614,"annualCf":-1866.1945728869537,"cocReturn":-7.046125687688136,"capRate":4.817316589517243},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-224.21621440724618,"delta":-69,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-182.9962144072461,"delta":-27,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-178.96682899057942,"delta":-23,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-264.28487393054786,"delta":-109,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −3.7% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-180.60673960779093,"delta":-25,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-264.28487393054786,"baselineCashFlow":-155.51621440724614,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":5.7323152820061285,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":84225.78429167237,"totalCashOutlay":114083.49908592989,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (OK avg 0.85%/yr)","homeValueAfter":195627.87472164384,"equityBuilt":99446.17289655666,"netCostOfBuying":41122.726189373236,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":43103.05810229914},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.5134186152444578,"price":132427,"medianIncome":52688,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.558,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.56% ($650 tax ÷ $116,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":132427,"secondary":116500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":916,"secondary":762,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":116500,"high":132427}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":762,"high":916}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 5.7%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":116500,"high":132427}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":762,"high":916}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Johnston County, OK leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 12.0 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Johnston County, OK a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Johnston County's price-to-rent ratio of 12.0 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Johnston County?","a":"The typical home value in Johnston County is about $132,427 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 2.0% year-over-year, and up 32.1% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Johnston County?","a":"The typical rent in Johnston County is about $916/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Johnston County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Johnston County — roughly $43,103 ahead of renting, with about $99,446 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Johnston County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Johnston County's median home value is 2.5x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Johnston County?","a":"Johnston County's effective property tax rate is about 0.56% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.56% ($650 tax ÷ $116,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $132,427 median home is roughly $62/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Johnston County, OK was $132,427 as of April 2026, up 2.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Johnston County, OK was $916/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Johnston County, OK has a price-to-rent ratio of 12.0 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=johnston-ok","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=johnston-ok"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T19:50:43.439Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":132427,"countyFmr":916,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"OK","stateName":"Oklahoma","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}