{"area":{"county":"Jefferson County","state":"WA","stateName":"Washington","slug":"jefferson-wa","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":468433},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":489100},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":509913},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":534518},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":543694},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":535000},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":526258},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":522621},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":526220},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":537953},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":544253},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":546048},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":551895},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":555938},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":560164},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":566590},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":567266},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":563985},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":571917},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":565075},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":561911}],"latest":561911,"yoy":-0.9440015795059108,"fiveYr":19.955468551532448,"sinceStart":482.35757443853703,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1588}],"latest":1588,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":74048,"population":33577,"povertyRate":11.092635143306325,"medianHomeValue":535000,"medianGrossRent":1522,"medianPropertyTax":3818},"hud":{"county":"Jefferson County","year":"2027","perUnit":1588,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Washington","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":42104,"ratePer100k":263.11645265228685},"propertyCrime":{"total":287985,"ratePer100k":1799.676791209121},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":29.5,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":3.7065469399210516,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":561911,"monthlyRent":1588,"grossRent":1588,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"WA","down":112382.20000000001,"loan":449528.8,"mortgagePI":2915.635240325941,"monthlyTax":334.337045,"taxRatePct":0.714,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.71% ($3,818 tax ÷ $535,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":196.66885,"insuranceRatePct":0.42,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WA avg 0.42%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":79.4,"egi":1508.6,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":158.8,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":79.4,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":79.4,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":848.6058949999999,"noi":659.994105,"totalExpenses":3764.2411353259413,"cashFlow":-2255.641135325941,"annualCf":-27067.69362391129,"cocReturn":-24.085392191923,"capRate":1.4094632886702698},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2374.7411353259413,"delta":-119,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2303.2811353259412,"delta":-48,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2304.8083478259414,"delta":-49,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-2717.1656449908733,"delta":-462,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −10.2% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-04-01 → 2009-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-2377.1078051244094,"delta":-121,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-2717.1656449908733,"baselineCashFlow":-2255.641135325941,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":3.7065469399210516,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":146015.87931787746,"totalCashOutlay":456708.38952507736,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WA avg 0.42%/yr)","homeValueAfter":724954.5037037788,"equityBuilt":316838.6643791958,"netCostOfBuying":252251.9251458816,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":106236.04582800413},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":7.5884696413137425,"price":561911,"medianIncome":74048,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.714,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.71% ($3,818 tax ÷ $535,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":561911,"secondary":535000,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.05,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1588,"secondary":1522,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.04,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":535000,"high":561911}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.04,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1522,"high":1588}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 3.7%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":535000,"high":561911}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.04,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1522,"high":1588}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Jefferson County, WA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 29.5x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Jefferson County, WA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 29.5x, Jefferson County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Jefferson County?","a":"The typical home value in Jefferson County is about $561,911 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), down 0.9% year-over-year, and up 20.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Jefferson County?","a":"The typical rent in Jefferson County is about $1,588/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Jefferson County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Jefferson County by about $106,236 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Jefferson County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Jefferson County's median home value is 7.6x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Jefferson County?","a":"Jefferson County's effective property tax rate is about 0.71% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.71% ($3,818 tax ÷ $535,000 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $561,911 median home is roughly $334/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Jefferson County, WA was $561,911 as of April 2026, down 0.9% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Jefferson County, WA was $1,588/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Jefferson County, WA has a price-to-rent ratio of 29.5 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=jefferson-wa","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=jefferson-wa"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T11:20:48.071Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":561911,"countyFmr":1588,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"WA","stateName":"Washington","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}