{"area":{"county":"Jasper County","state":"TX","stateName":"Texas","slug":"jasper-tx","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":114345},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":120042},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":125278},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":130369},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":136377},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":136400},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":136613},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":136699},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":137817},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":139842},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":139942},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":140837},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":141671},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":141939},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":143111},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":143855},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":142409},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":142064},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":142319},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":142084},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":143056}],"latest":143056,"yoy":0.4543252182095232,"fiveYr":25.1090996545542,"sinceStart":344.2456990249053,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1014}],"latest":1014,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":56723,"population":32727,"povertyRate":20.743851611466386,"medianHomeValue":136400,"medianGrossRent":848,"medianPropertyTax":1326},"hud":{"county":"Jasper County","year":"2027","perUnit":1014,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Texas","period":"11-2023 to 10-2025","window":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"violentCrime":{"total":236610,"ratePer100k":373.0863066051366},"propertyCrime":{"total":1238795,"ratePer100k":1953.3301685935094},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"priceToRentRatio":11.8,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":4.582843032105255,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":143056,"monthlyRent":1014,"grossRent":1014,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"TX","down":28611.2,"loan":114444.8,"mortgagePI":742.2867944213014,"monthlyTax":115.87536,"taxRatePct":0.972,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.97% ($1,326 tax ÷ $136,400 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":101.33133333333335,"insuranceRatePct":0.85,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":50.7,"egi":963.3,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":101.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":50.7,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":50.7,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":420.0066933333334,"noi":543.2933066666666,"totalExpenses":1162.2934877546347,"cashFlow":-198.99348775463477,"annualCf":-2387.9218530556172,"cocReturn":-8.346108702380945,"capRate":4.5573199865786815},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-275.04348775463467,"delta":-76,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-229.41348775463473,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-224.32632108796804,"delta":-25,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-316.4922558062061,"delta":-117,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −2.6% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-218.88853085808285,"delta":-20,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-316.4922558062061,"baselineCashFlow":-198.99348775463477,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":4.582843032105255,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93236.83981632728,"totalCashOutlay":130641.04704533325,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","homeValueAfter":195762.3562472256,"equityBuilt":91860.81399157018,"netCostOfBuying":67391.43305376307,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":25845.406762564206},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.522010471942598,"price":143056,"medianIncome":56723,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.972,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.97% ($1,326 tax ÷ $136,400 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":143056,"secondary":136400,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.05,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1014,"secondary":848,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":136400,"high":143056}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":848,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 4.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":136400,"high":143056}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":848,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Jasper County, TX leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 11.8 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Jasper County, TX a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Jasper County's price-to-rent ratio of 11.8 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Jasper County?","a":"The typical home value in Jasper County is about $143,056 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 0.5% year-over-year, and up 25.1% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Jasper County?","a":"The typical rent in Jasper County is about $1,014/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Jasper County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Jasper County — roughly $25,845 ahead of renting, with about $91,861 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Jasper County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Jasper County's median home value is 2.5x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Jasper County?","a":"Jasper County's effective property tax rate is about 0.97% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.97% ($1,326 tax ÷ $136,400 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $143,056 median home is roughly $116/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Jasper County, TX was $143,056 as of April 2026, up 0.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Jasper County, TX was $1,014/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Jasper County, TX has a price-to-rent ratio of 11.8 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=jasper-tx","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=jasper-tx"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:07:47.357Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":143056,"countyFmr":1014,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"TX","stateName":"Texas","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}