{"area":{"county":"Jackson County","state":"CO","stateName":"Colorado","slug":"jackson-co","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":211247},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":221407},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":227114},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":241009},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":246019},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":239600},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":237874},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":237221},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":240414},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":244744},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":245053},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":245757},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":247483},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":248733},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":250411},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":250665},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":246266},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":247029},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":246542},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":244918},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":244973}],"latest":244973,"yoy":-0.5250420277261173,"fiveYr":15.965197138894279,"sinceStart":574.3551628265477,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1485}],"latest":1485,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":47667,"population":1372,"povertyRate":14.641288433382138,"medianHomeValue":239600,"medianGrossRent":1701,"medianPropertyTax":416},"hud":{"county":"Jackson County","year":"2027","perUnit":1485,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Colorado","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":48699,"ratePer100k":404.9771802730983},"propertyCrime":{"total":247807,"ratePer100k":2060.74416542302},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":13.7,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":3.0071320394149836,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":244973,"monthlyRent":1485,"grossRent":1485,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"CO","down":48994.600000000006,"loan":195978.4,"mortgagePI":1271.112172084844,"monthlyTax":35.52108499999999,"taxRatePct":0.174,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.17% ($416 tax ÷ $239,600 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":151.06668333333334,"insuranceRatePct":0.74,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CO avg 0.74%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":74.25,"egi":1410.75,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":148.5,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":74.25,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":74.25,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":483.5877683333333,"noi":927.1622316666667,"totalExpenses":1754.6999404181772,"cashFlow":-343.9499404181772,"annualCf":-4127.399285018127,"cocReturn":-8.424192227343678,"capRate":4.541703281586134},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-455.3249404181772,"delta":-111,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-388.4999404181772,"delta":-45,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-381.7166112515106,"delta":-38,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-545.1580386866706,"delta":-201,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −5.1% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-400.741920368052,"delta":-57,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-545.1580386866706,"baselineCashFlow":-343.9499404181772,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":3.0071320394149836,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":136545.07606237277,"totalCashOutlay":198762.81092676433,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CO avg 0.74%/yr)","homeValueAfter":301431.9545593584,"equityBuilt":123508.11696432807,"netCostOfBuying":124249.29396243626,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":12295.782099936507},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.1392577674282,"price":244973,"medianIncome":47667,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.174,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.17% ($416 tax ÷ $239,600 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":244973,"secondary":239600,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.02,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1485,"secondary":1701,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":0.87,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.02,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":239600,"high":244973}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":0.87,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1485,"high":1701}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (229d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (15d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 3.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":229,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":15,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.02,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":239600,"high":244973}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":0.87,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1485,"high":1701}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Jackson County, CO leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 13.7 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Jackson County, CO a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Jackson County's price-to-rent ratio of 13.7 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Jackson County?","a":"The typical home value in Jackson County is about $244,973 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), down 0.5% year-over-year, and up 16.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Jackson County?","a":"The typical rent in Jackson County is about $1,485/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Jackson County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Jackson County — roughly $12,296 ahead of renting, with about $123,508 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Jackson County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Jackson County's median home value is 5.1x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Jackson County?","a":"Jackson County's effective property tax rate is about 0.17% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.17% ($416 tax ÷ $239,600 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $244,973 median home is roughly $36/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Jackson County, CO was $244,973 as of April 2026, down 0.5% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Jackson County, CO was $1,485/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Jackson County, CO has a price-to-rent ratio of 13.7 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=jackson-co","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=jackson-co"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T12:07:57.227Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":["2020"],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":244973,"countyFmr":1485,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"CO","stateName":"Colorado","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}