{"area":{"county":"Isle of Wight County","state":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","slug":"isle-of-wight-va","metro":"Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":310608},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":324490},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":331589},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":350827},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":357702},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":356500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":361205},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":363140},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":372530},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":383336},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":382786},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":384375},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":392594},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":399856},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":413289},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":420428},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":419878},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":417251},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":418677},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":420255},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":427446}],"latest":427446,"yoy":1.8024283244180452,"fiveYr":37.61590171534539,"sinceStart":319.69836812442315,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1667}],"latest":1667,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":95241,"population":39974,"povertyRate":6.751341952067741,"medianHomeValue":356500,"medianGrossRent":1359,"medianPropertyTax":2510},"hud":{"county":"Isle of Wight County","year":"2027","perUnit":1667,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Virginia","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":35217,"ratePer100k":198.2915295953078},"propertyCrime":{"total":230747,"ratePer100k":1299.2354709239428},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":21.4,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":6.595168660051343,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":427446,"monthlyRent":1667,"grossRent":1667,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"VA","down":85489.20000000001,"loan":341956.8,"mortgagePI":2217.92529588558,"monthlyTax":250.76832,"taxRatePct":0.704,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.70% ($2,510 tax ÷ $356,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":199.47480000000004,"insuranceRatePct":0.56,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":83.35000000000001,"egi":1583.65,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":166.70000000000002,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":83.35000000000001,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":83.35000000000001,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":783.6431200000001,"noi":800.00688,"totalExpenses":3001.56841588558,"cashFlow":-1417.91841588558,"annualCf":-17015.02099062696,"cocReturn":-19.90312342451088,"capRate":2.2459170421526933},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1542.9434158855802,"delta":-125,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1467.9284158855803,"delta":-50,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1467.78711588558,"delta":-50,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1769.0003586812122,"delta":-351,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −12.6% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1575.7009647592918,"delta":-158,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1769.0003586812122,"baselineCashFlow":-1417.91841588558,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.595168660051343,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":153279.89346530332,"totalCashOutlay":357656.09445536253,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","homeValueAfter":668411.4871777436,"equityBuilt":357957.5486431079,"netCostOfBuying":85187.74581225467,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":68092.14765304865},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.488046114593505,"price":427446,"medianIncome":95241,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.704,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.70% ($2,510 tax ÷ $356,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":427446,"secondary":356500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1667,"secondary":1359,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.23,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":356500,"high":427446}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1359,"high":1667}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":356500,"high":427446}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1359,"high":1667}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Isle of Wight County, VA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 21.4x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Isle of Wight County, VA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 21.4x, Isle of Wight County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Isle of Wight County?","a":"The typical home value in Isle of Wight County is about $427,446 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 1.8% year-over-year, and up 37.6% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Isle of Wight County?","a":"The typical rent in Isle of Wight County is about $1,667/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Isle of Wight County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Isle of Wight County — roughly $68,092 ahead of renting, with about $357,958 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Isle of Wight County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Isle of Wight County's median home value is 4.5x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Isle of Wight County?","a":"Isle of Wight County's effective property tax rate is about 0.70% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.70% ($2,510 tax ÷ $356,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $427,446 median home is roughly $251/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Isle of Wight County, VA was $427,446 as of April 2026, up 1.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Isle of Wight County, VA was $1,667/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Isle of Wight County, VA has a price-to-rent ratio of 21.4 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=isle-of-wight-va","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=isle-of-wight-va"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:47:05.460Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":427446,"countyFmr":1667,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}