{"area":{"county":"Hudson County","state":"NJ","stateName":"New Jersey","slug":"hudson-nj","metro":"Jersey City, NJ HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":482826},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":495588},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":503414},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":527537},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":541817},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":539700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":536444},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":540708},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":550783},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":565414},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":583841},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":593377},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":608504},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":615133},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":631385},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":645301},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":648046},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":657450},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":660545},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":662648},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":684171}],"latest":684171,"yoy":5.5744499618854215,"fiveYr":41.70135825328379,"sinceStart":368.54929837897805,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":2792}],"latest":2792,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":91795,"population":718323,"povertyRate":14.92589447057117,"medianHomeValue":539700,"medianGrossRent":1894,"medianPropertyTax":9555},"hud":{"county":"Hudson County","year":"2027","perUnit":2792,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"New Jersey","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":31890,"ratePer100k":166.99456390540013},"propertyCrime":{"total":205468,"ratePer100k":1075.9497979465273},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":20.4,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":7.220776375535309,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":684171,"monthlyRent":2792,"grossRent":2792,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NJ","down":136834.2,"loan":547336.8,"mortgagePI":3550.0160666173815,"monthlyTax":1009.1522249999999,"taxRatePct":1.77,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.77% ($9,555 tax ÷ $539,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":285.07125,"insuranceRatePct":0.5,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NJ avg 0.5%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":139.6,"egi":2652.4,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":279.2,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":139.6,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":139.6,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":1852.6234749999999,"noi":799.7765250000002,"totalExpenses":5402.639541617382,"cashFlow":-2750.2395416173813,"annualCf":-33002.87449940857,"cocReturn":-24.118878540166545,"capRate":1.4027660190215607},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2959.6395416173814,"delta":-209,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2833.9995416173815,"delta":-84,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2821.5073541173815,"delta":-71,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-3312.1820650810014,"delta":-562,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −8.3% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-2923.2312429903614,"delta":-173,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-3312.1820650810014,"baselineCashFlow":-2750.2395416173813,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.220776375535309,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":256723.13290649484,"totalCashOutlay":657377.7733218016,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NJ avg 0.5%/yr)","homeValueAfter":1114595.5244944424,"equityBuilt":617682.2732739835,"netCostOfBuying":176529.70004781807,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":80193.43285867677},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":7.453249087640939,"price":684171,"medianIncome":91795,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.77,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.77% ($9,555 tax ÷ $539,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":684171,"secondary":539700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.27,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":2792,"secondary":1894,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.47,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.27,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":539700,"high":684171}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.47,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1894,"high":2792}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.2%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.27,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":539700,"high":684171}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.47,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1894,"high":2792}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Hudson County, NJ is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 20.4x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Hudson County, NJ a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 20.4x, Hudson County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Hudson County?","a":"The typical home value in Hudson County is about $684,171 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 5.6% year-over-year, and up 41.7% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Hudson County?","a":"The typical rent in Hudson County is about $2,792/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Hudson County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Hudson County — roughly $80,193 ahead of renting, with about $617,682 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Hudson County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Hudson County's median home value is 7.5x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Hudson County?","a":"Hudson County's effective property tax rate is about 1.77% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.77% ($9,555 tax ÷ $539,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $684,171 median home is roughly $1,009/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Hudson County, NJ was $684,171 as of April 2026, up 5.6% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Hudson County, NJ was $2,792/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Hudson County, NJ has a price-to-rent ratio of 20.4 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=hudson-nj","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=hudson-nj"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T07:08:23.259Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Jersey City, NJ HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Jersey City, NJ HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":684171,"countyFmr":2792,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Jersey City, NJ HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"NJ","stateName":"New Jersey","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}