{"area":{"county":"Hopewell city","state":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","slug":"hopewell-va","metro":"Richmond, VA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":159447},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":162490},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":168498},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":176720},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":181302},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":181600},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":184971},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":187843},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":190520},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":196993},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":200652},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":200935},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":206514},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":208399},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":206631},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":211985},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":214515},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":215477},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":218081},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":219151},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":218433}],"latest":218433,"yoy":1.8264457030976855,"fiveYr":36.99411089578355,"sinceStart":347.15046059365403,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1651}],"latest":1651,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":54729,"population":22959,"povertyRate":21.787144177042546,"medianHomeValue":181600,"medianGrossRent":1106,"medianPropertyTax":1564},"hud":{"county":"Hopewell city","year":"2027","perUnit":1651,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Virginia","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":35217,"ratePer100k":198.2915295953078},"propertyCrime":{"total":230747,"ratePer100k":1299.2354709239428},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":11,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.498654960426009,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":218433,"monthlyRent":1651,"grossRent":1651,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"VA","down":43686.600000000006,"loan":174746.4,"mortgagePI":1133.4018242214802,"monthlyTax":156.7256775,"taxRatePct":0.861,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.86% ($1,564 tax ÷ $181,600 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":101.93540000000002,"insuranceRatePct":0.56,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":82.55000000000001,"egi":1568.45,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":165.10000000000002,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":82.55000000000001,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":82.55000000000001,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":588.8610775000001,"noi":979.5889225,"totalExpenses":1722.2629017214804,"cashFlow":-153.81290172148022,"annualCf":-1845.7548206577626,"cocReturn":-4.224990776709019,"capRate":5.381543571713065},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-277.63790172148026,"delta":-124,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-203.3429017214802,"delta":-50,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-179.29675172148018,"delta":-25,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-333.22242248124496,"delta":-179,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −9.7% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-273.3784945452718,"delta":-120,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-333.22242248124496,"baselineCashFlow":-153.81290172148022,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.498654960426009,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":151808.70072658415,"totalCashOutlay":182639.94409647505,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","homeValueAfter":339411.9354728448,"equityBuilt":180764.09421117418,"netCostOfBuying":45562.449885300884,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":106246.25084128327},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.99117469714411,"price":218433,"medianIncome":54729,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.861,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.86% ($1,564 tax ÷ $181,600 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":218433,"secondary":181600,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1651,"secondary":1106,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.49,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":181600,"high":218433}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.49,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1106,"high":1651}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":181600,"high":218433}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.49,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1106,"high":1651}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Hopewell city, VA leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 11.0 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Hopewell city, VA a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Hopewell city's price-to-rent ratio of 11.0 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Hopewell city?","a":"The typical home value in Hopewell city is about $218,433 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 1.8% year-over-year, and up 37.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Hopewell city?","a":"The typical rent in Hopewell city is about $1,651/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Hopewell city?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Hopewell city — roughly $106,246 ahead of renting, with about $180,764 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Hopewell city affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Hopewell city's median home value is 4.0x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Hopewell city?","a":"Hopewell city's effective property tax rate is about 0.86% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.86% ($1,564 tax ÷ $181,600 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $218,433 median home is roughly $157/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Hopewell city, VA was $218,433 as of April 2026, up 1.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Hopewell city, VA was $1,651/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Hopewell city, VA has a price-to-rent ratio of 11.0 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=hopewell-va","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=hopewell-va"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T10:09:43.273Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Richmond, VA HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Richmond, VA HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":218433,"countyFmr":1651,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Richmond, VA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}