{"area":{"county":"Hillsborough County","state":"NH","stateName":"New Hampshire","slug":"hillsborough-nh","metro":"Nashua, NH HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":349146},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":369626},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":380129},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":389942},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":419280},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":421100},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":424696},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":422865},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":443214},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":458804},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":455833},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":465831},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":484349},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":489633},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":491881},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":491355},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":507844},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":513084},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":517689},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":519235},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":531986}],"latest":531986,"yoy":4.753822039839005,"fiveYr":52.367777376799395,"sinceStart":811.2313937753722,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":2239}],"latest":2239,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":103545,"population":426378,"povertyRate":6.73901719878237,"medianHomeValue":421100,"medianGrossRent":1623,"medianPropertyTax":6999},"hud":{"county":"Hillsborough County","year":"2027","perUnit":2239,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"New Hampshire","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":3317,"ratePer100k":117.18015857651366},"propertyCrime":{"total":22159,"ratePer100k":782.814330387991},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":19.8,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 19.8× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":8.788661786495844,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":531986,"monthlyRent":2239,"grossRent":2239,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NH","down":106397.20000000001,"loan":425588.8,"mortgagePI":2760.36085600751,"monthlyTax":736.8006099999999,"taxRatePct":1.662,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.66% ($6,999 tax ÷ $421,100 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":195.06153333333336,"insuranceRatePct":0.44,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NH avg 0.44%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":111.95,"egi":2127.05,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":223.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":111.95,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":111.95,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":1379.6621433333335,"noi":747.3878566666667,"totalExpenses":4140.022999340843,"cashFlow":-2012.9729993408432,"annualCf":-24155.675992090117,"cocReturn":-22.703300455359834,"capRate":1.6858816359829019},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2180.8979993408434,"delta":-168,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2080.1429993408433,"delta":-67,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2061.738382674176,"delta":-49,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-2449.918668314415,"delta":-437,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1980-04-01) (home values −13.1% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1989-10-01 → 1990-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-2232.5460537410377,"delta":-220,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-2449.918668314415,"baselineCashFlow":-2012.9729993408432,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":8.788661786495844,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":205875.03387451358,"totalCashOutlay":502146.8915314886,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NH avg 0.44%/yr)","homeValueAfter":959368.9202733561,"equityBuilt":572987.6020593905,"netCostOfBuying":35556.489472098125,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":170318.54440241546},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.137727558066541,"price":531986,"medianIncome":103545,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.662,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.66% ($6,999 tax ÷ $421,100 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":531986,"secondary":421100,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.26,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":2239,"secondary":1623,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.38,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.26,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":421100,"high":531986}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.38,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1623,"high":2239}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (229d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (15d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 8.8%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":229,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":15,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.26,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":421100,"high":531986}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.38,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1623,"high":2239}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Hillsborough County, NH is a moderate market — a 19.8x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Hillsborough County, NH a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Hillsborough County's 19.8x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Hillsborough County?","a":"The typical home value in Hillsborough County is about $531,986 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 4.8% year-over-year, and up 52.4% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Hillsborough County?","a":"The typical rent in Hillsborough County is about $2,239/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Hillsborough County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Hillsborough County — roughly $170,319 ahead of renting, with about $572,988 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Hillsborough County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Hillsborough County's median home value is 5.1x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Hillsborough County?","a":"Hillsborough County's effective property tax rate is about 1.66% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.66% ($6,999 tax ÷ $421,100 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $531,986 median home is roughly $737/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Hillsborough County, NH was $531,986 as of April 2026, up 4.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Hillsborough County, NH was $2,239/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Hillsborough County, NH has a price-to-rent ratio of 19.8 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=hillsborough-nh","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=hillsborough-nh"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T12:25:40.717Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Nashua, NH HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Nashua, NH HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":531986,"countyFmr":2239,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Nashua, NH HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"NH","stateName":"New Hampshire","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}