{"area":{"county":"Hillsborough County","state":"FL","stateName":"Florida","slug":"hillsborough-fl","metro":"Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":286894},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":307620},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":326783},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":347777},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":367127},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":371500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":369418},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":373164},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":378366},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":389251},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":392277},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":393927},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":396110},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":395036},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":400108},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":395051},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":390634},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":387040},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":390534},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":393703},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":394395}],"latest":394395,"yoy":0.962793817230451,"fiveYr":37.4706337532329,"sinceStart":447.4514866327976,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1917}],"latest":1917,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":79540,"population":1522748,"povertyRate":12.71356504830202,"medianHomeValue":371500,"medianGrossRent":1667,"medianPropertyTax":3010},"hud":{"county":"Hillsborough County","year":"2027","perUnit":1917,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Florida","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":95375,"ratePer100k":203.24971087928412},"propertyCrime":{"total":410246,"ratePer100k":874.2582530996885},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":17.1,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 17.1× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.572651602133228,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":394395,"monthlyRent":1917,"grossRent":1917,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"FL","down":78879,"loan":315516,"mortgagePI":2046.4307703681714,"monthlyTax":266.2166250000001,"taxRatePct":0.81,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.81% ($3,010 tax ÷ $371,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":345.095625,"insuranceRatePct":1.05,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (FL avg 1.05%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":95.85000000000001,"egi":1821.15,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":191.70000000000002,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":95.85000000000001,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":95.85000000000001,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":994.7122500000002,"noi":826.4377499999999,"totalExpenses":3041.1430203681716,"cashFlow":-1219.9930203681715,"annualCf":-14639.916244418058,"cocReturn":-18.55996684088041,"capRate":2.5145483588787885},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1363.7680203681716,"delta":-144,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1277.5030203681717,"delta":-58,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1306.2669266181713,"delta":-86,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1543.9285884373157,"delta":-324,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −26.3% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1598.8208930311325,"delta":-379,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1598.8208930311325,"baselineCashFlow":-1219.9930203681715,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.572651602133228,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":176267.2800077903,"totalCashOutlay":345443.6160181256,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (FL avg 1.05%/yr)","homeValueAfter":615817.1801054425,"equityBuilt":329368.1758139818,"netCostOfBuying":94954.44020414382,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":81312.8398036465},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.958448579331154,"price":394395,"medianIncome":79540,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.81,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.81% ($3,010 tax ÷ $371,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":394395,"secondary":371500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.06,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1917,"secondary":1667,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.15,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.06,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":371500,"high":394395}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.15,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1667,"high":1917}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.06,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":371500,"high":394395}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.15,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1667,"high":1917}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Hillsborough County, FL is a moderate market — a 17.1x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Hillsborough County, FL a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Hillsborough County's 17.1x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Hillsborough County?","a":"The typical home value in Hillsborough County is about $394,395 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 1.0% year-over-year, and up 37.5% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Hillsborough County?","a":"The typical rent in Hillsborough County is about $1,917/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Hillsborough County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Hillsborough County — roughly $81,313 ahead of renting, with about $329,368 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Hillsborough County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Hillsborough County's median home value is 5.0x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Hillsborough County?","a":"Hillsborough County's effective property tax rate is about 0.81% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.81% ($3,010 tax ÷ $371,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $394,395 median home is roughly $266/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Hillsborough County, FL was $394,395 as of April 2026, up 1.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Hillsborough County, FL was $1,917/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Hillsborough County, FL has a price-to-rent ratio of 17.1 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=hillsborough-fl","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=hillsborough-fl"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T08:43:16.086Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":394395,"countyFmr":1917,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"FL","stateName":"Florida","cityPages":[{"city":"Tampa","state":"FL"}],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}